Over the last week or so, this column has been dedicated to answering some of the roster questions the Orioles still have as Opening Day draws near. Having already discussed the outfield and the utility infielder, today we’ll address another roster question (that may have just) answered itself: what’s up with the starting rotation?
When pitchers and catchers reported to Sarasota on February 13th, the rotation had three huge holes behind Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman. Slated to compete for the final three spots were Mike Wright, Jr., Gabriel Ynoa, Miguel Castro, Hunter Harvey, and Rule V picks Nestor Cortes, Jr. and Jose Mesa, Jr.
Wright must make the 25-man roster or be granted his release. Ynoa and Castro suffered injuries which have set them back, with Ynoa set to begin the year on the disabled list. Harvey has pitched 144.1 innings in his professional career, including just 32.2 IP since 2015. And Cortes and Mesa are young guys who certainly would benefit from more time in the minors, if only that were possible – slim pickings, to say the least.
Oh what a difference six weeks makes.
Starting Rotation
The dominoes in the rotation starting falling on February 15th when the Orioles inked Andrew Cashner to a two-year, $16MM deal that could reach 3-years, $41MM if all incentives are reached and options are picked up.
Chris Tillman followed less than a week later with a one-year, $3MM pact that could reach $10MM with incentives. But even with those two signings, the questions were still plentiful regarding the rotation.
We can all recite the facts from 2017 ad nauseam. A franchise-worst (and MLB-worst) 5.70 ERA from the starters, 45 wins, one complete game, and 846 IP – all in the bottom three in the American League.
Though Cashner and Tillman have proven to be solid MLB starters over the course of their careers, declining peripherals from the former and a historically bad 2017 season from the latter left the Baltimore fan base scratching its collective head. Add to that the less-than-thrilling options for the fifth and final spot in the rotation and it’s not hard to understand the feeling of ineptitude that surrounded this team.
Still, they couldn’t be nearly as bad as last year, right? While it’s still too early to tell, Cashner has been very good in his two Grapefruit League starts, allowing just one earned run on five hits in 9.0 IP thus far. Tillman, shaky at best in his first outing, allowing six walks, settled it down the other day, going five innings of one run ball with zero walks against a very representative Tigers lineup.
Yet, through it all, there’s still something missing. Wright and his career 5.86 ERA leave much to be desired. Ynoa, Castro, Harvey, Cortes, and Mesa have eight career big-league starts between them, including zero from the final three.
There were some solid free agent options left in Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn, and Alex Cobb, and the Orioles were rumored to be in contact with the agents for all three. Arrieta, though, was far out of the Orioles’ price range, signing for three years, $75MM with Philadelphia. Lynn signed a much more manageable deal with Minnesota at one year, $12MM, claiming he felt the Twins provided him with the best chance to win.
That leaves Alex Cobb. Cobb, if you recall, has spent the entirety of his Major League career in the American League East with the Tampa Bay Rays. All he’s done is pitch to a 3.50 ERA over 115 starts through six seasons. He seemed to be the perfect fit for Baltimore, but his asking price was rumored to be around four years, $68MM. Plus, he had already turned down an offer from the Cubs for three years at $42MM. It would seem that Cobb was too pricey for Baltimore, especially after the Ubaldo Jimenez debacle.
[Related: Knee-Jerk Reactions to O’s Signing Alex Cobb]
But, when there’s a will, there’s a way. It seems as though the Orioles got their man, as Cobb agreed to a contract with the club, as first reported by Jeff Passan on Twitter. Per Roch, the terms are for four years at $57MM, with $20MM deferred.
More on Cobb contract with #orioles $57M with $20M deferred so NPV is ~47M:
— Roch Kubatko (@masnRoch) March 21, 2018
Also, he passed his physical, always an issue that gives O’s fans hives.
Cobb passed his physical. Was never in doubt. Making these terms official.
— Roch Kubatko (@masnRoch) March 21, 2018
The 2017 Orioles Opening Day rotation lined up as follows: Kevin Gausman, Dylan Bundy, Ubaldo Jimenez, Wade Miley, and then relievers and minor leaguers to fill the gap until Tillman returned in May. Don’t forget the dumpster fire that was Jeremy Hellickson.who came over at the non-waiver trade deadline.
The 2018 Orioles Opening Day rotation potentially lines up as follows: Dylan Bundy, Kevin Gausman, Andrew Cashner, Alex Cobb (in some order) and Chris Tillman. This alignment allows Wright and Cortes to move to the bullpen with Castro likely moving to Norfolk’s starting rotation. The depth that this signing gives Baltimore is noteworthy. Any time you remove question marks from the rotation, it’s a good thing.
Now, having said all that, let’s proceed with caution. While the signing of Cobb should be considered good for the team, it is up to the rest of the rotation to do their part. Bundy must take the next step and become the workhorse the Orioles envisioned when they drafted him fourth overall in 2011. Gausman must prove that he can pitch a full season with consistency, as his last two seasons have been very Jekyll and Hyde from one half to the next. Cashner must prove that his 3.40 ERA in 2017 was no fluke following consecutive down years, and Tillman simply needs to go the route of Jim Carrey in Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind and have 2017 completely wiped from his memory.
Still, the Cobb signing gives Orioles fans something they have been lacking since the end of May: hope. If each starter pitches to their capabilities, this starting rotation could improve by nearly two runs in 2018. A lofty goal? Perhaps, but certainly much more attainable than anybody could have imagined back in February.
In my next column, we’ll discuss the catching situation is Baltimore. The job seems to be Caleb Joseph’s for now. Are there two others knocking down his door?
