In this space three weeks ago, I condemned the Orioles for their lack of moves to make the team a legitimate contender entering 2018. I criticized the outfield situation, namely the signing of Colby Rasmus (I’m still not sold on him, but he’s had a productive spring and seems to be a great teammate, at the very least).
I tore apart the assembly of the starting rotation as I felt the Chris Tillman and Andrew Cashner signings served as nothing more than a pacifier for the fan base while the likes of Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn, and Alex Cobb remained unsigned on the open market.
Furthermore, I bashed the Orioles’ brass for their mentality that Rule V pitchers and guys like Mike Wright, Jr. and Gabriel Ynoa (to name a couple) had any business taking the ball every fifth day in the American League East.
Many of you agreed with my rant. Many of you thought it was over the top, angry, and temperamental. Many of you were right. My frustration boiled over and I unleashed the fury, so to speak. My ire towards this team was only confounded when Lynn signed a very economical one-year, $12M deal with Minnesota two weekends ago.
Today, I can happily eat crow and say I was wrong as it seems the Orioles had a plan all along.
Cobb, one of the top free agent pitchers on the market, and a bona fide starter against the AL East, has signed a 4-year, $57M (with $20M deferred) contract with Baltimore, according to a number of sources.
In an offseason that began with so many unanswered questions regarding the makeup of the team, the Orioles saved their best for Sarasota, as they seem to do every year. The addition of Cobb completely alters the pitching landscape for this club as everybody slots down one spot, and those names we were scared to look at move back to simple depth players rather than key contributors.
What Cobb brings to the table cannot be undersold. Pitching exclusively in the AL East throughout his career (all six seasons with Tampa Bay), Cobb carries a 3.50 ERA, 1.217 WHIP, and a 45-38 record (.578) over 115 starts.
He is 6-4 with a 3.43 ERA in 14 starts against Boston, 6-4 with a 2.99 ERA in 14 starts against the Yankees, and 3-3 with a 3.23 ERA in eight starts against Toronto.
Pitching in his first full season since undergoing Tommy John Surgery, Cobb set career highs in starts (29) and innings-pitched (179.1) in 2017. His 1.221 WHIP ranked 10th in the AL and his 3.66 ERA ranked 11th.
Some might point to his declining K/9 ratio (6.4; the lowest since his abbreviated 2011 rookie campaign) as reason for a fall back in 2018, but that can be countered with his 2.2 BB/9 ratio as Cobb exhibited the best command of his six-year career in 2017. Simply put, Cobb’s addition makes the Orioles a viable playoff contender. After inking the largest free agent contract ever given to a pitcher in Orioles history, and right after the stink of the Ubaldo Jimenez era has finally started to dissipate, it better.
As we move closer and closer to Opening Day (a little more than a week away), it seems as though this rotation is finally set with Dylan Bundy, Kevin Gausman, Alex Cobb, Andrew Cashner, and Chris Tillman. The only issue here is when Cobb will be ready to pitch during the season.
While it is fair to assume that Cobb has been working out all winter, he has yet to face live hitters in any game-type situation that we know of, whether in the Grapefruit League, a B-game, or a simulated game. As Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com reported via Twitter, though Cobb does have options, he cannot be sent down to the minors without his consent due to his service time, but there is a clause in his contract that will allow him to begin the season in the minors to get stretched out before debuting with the big league club.
My guess is that Bundy, Gausman, and Cashner get the nod in the opening series with Minnesota, while Tillman and a combination of Mike Wright, Jr., Nestor Cortes, Jr., and Miguel Castro see action in the first two games with Houston.
Once Cobb is ready for his promotion, I assume Wright and Cortes both end up in the bullpen with Castro joining the rotation in AAA Norfolk, for no other reason than Wright and Cortes can’t be sent down without having to pass through waivers while Castro still has options remaining.
On paper, the Orioles have their best Opening Day rotation in possibly two decades. We can look at the 2014 rotation and its sparkling 3.61 ERA, but who saw that coming when the team broke camp? With the continued maturation of Bundy and Gausman, the potential of Cashner and Tillman, and the track record of Cobb, there is certainly reason to be excited in Baltimore.
It only took until the week before Opening Day. But hey, beggars can’t be choosers, am I right?
