It has been a little more than two weeks since the All-Star break, so everyone has had some time to forget about “The Home Rub Derby Curse.” If you haven’t forgotten about it, keep reading and you will soon forget (keep reading even if you have forgotten about it).
The so-called “curse” was born in the midst of the 2005 season thanks to Bobby Abreu of the Philadelphia Phillies. In 323 pre All-Star at-bats, Abreu hit 18 homeruns. (Side note: Chris Davis hit 37 home runs in 343 AB prior to this year’s All-Star game—you do the math). Abreu saw a significant drop off after the break – when he competed in and won the Home Run Derby – hitting just six home runs in 265 AB in the second half of the season.
Since 2008, two players each year have hit 20 or more home runs during the derby (Yoenis Cespedes and Bryce Harper were the only two to do it this year). Although all but one of those players hit fewer home runs in the second half (Prince Fielder, who hit 22 in the first half, hit 24 in the second half in 2009, and matched his first half total of 15 in 2012), no player has seen significant drop offs in any major statistical category (excluding Jose Bautista who was injured in the second half of the 2012 season).
If you examine the numbers, the overarching theme of Home Run Derby participants is that they got off to hot starts – which is why they were chosen to participate in the derby – and are simply unable to keep up their sweltering numbers up for a 162-game season.
For those who want to keep track at home along with me, the following chart shows the 2013 Home Run Derby participants and their numbers since the All-Star break.
*numbers between 7/19 and 8/4
Now lets take a closer look at the guy everyone here at ESR really cares about.
As previously mentioned, in 343 pre All-Star at-bats, Chris Davis hit 37 home runs, an unreal average of a home run every 9.27 at bats.
Since the break he is averaging a home run every 20 AB. Before the break Davis averaged a hit every 3.18 AB, an RBI every 3.69 AB, a strikeout every 3.12 AB, and a walk every 9.03 AB.
Don’t be alarmed, but since the break the numbers are as follows: a hit every 4.62 AB, an RBI every 6.66 AB, a strikeout every 2.61 AB, and a walk every 12 AB.
Although the finger could easily be pointed to “the curse,” slumps happen in baseball. They happen for entire teams and they happen for individual players. No one is blind to the fact that the Orioles are just 8-8 in the second half of the season after a 12-13 month of July. As Chris goes, so go the O’s. The Birds have posted a record of 26-12 when Davis goes yard. It is only a matter of time before those strikeouts begin turning into home runs and “Kris” Davis turns back into “Crush” Davis.
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cool