Watching several weeks of development in different forms across big league diamonds and practice fields, there have been signs that the Orioles’ decision to rebuild is about to prove brilliant. The level of talent is as high as it’s been in years, but the personality type of everyone involved is what’s different from the past. It’s demonstrative of a more focused and efficient group as opposed to the mostly older-school personalities who have been replaced. To be honest, it could fill the pages of an extremely interesting book as the dynamic is powerful across all levels…but that’s not what I prefer to discuss here.
For a couple seasons now the Orioles have had the sport’s best system in one ranking or another but not near consensus. As biased as I am, it’s been hard to notice that the Rays have lots of talent and beat the Birds’ affiliates regularly so taking that crown hasn’t happened yet. I think this year the pendulum swings and minor league watchers will notice a shift in that all Orioles farm teams will play a higher level of ball.
There are perhaps some vets that won’t like starting their campaign at Low-A Delmarva, but by the end the talent will rise to the spot where it belongs. From my perspective, simply all of the prospects being one year closer by March of 2023 is huge but looking in the margins, I’ve seen signs that the coming transition may be explosive.
The Arms
First of all, the pitching. The names of the aces are known and discussed across all levels of baseball fandom. Dynasty owners and autograph seekers alike know DL and Grayson. From live batting practice sessions to scrimmages to exhibition games, I’m seeing multiple aspects of development boost the profiles of a handful of arms poised to step forward and keep the system ranked highly.
Starters Drew Rom, Zach Peek and Kyle Brnovich have proved hard to hit so far in the ‘pitchers ahead of hitters’ phase of early camp, and that’s expected. Taking the hitters out of the equation however and just watching the ball in the air, more than a few new-to-me arms Jean Pinto, Carlos Tavera and Noah Denoyer have stuff that for which hitters can’t really prepare. Movement and location are one thing, but the funk coming off the fingers of these guys in Sarasota has me thinking huge things. There have been other arms who have shown well, but that particular group has done so much with their innings that it’s hard to not notice.
That group should represent a big part of the post Grayson/Baumann/DL depth expected to eat innings and grow simultaneously. Justin Armbruester and Dylan Heid are a pair who I’ve seen slightly less of but who seem like they can control the strike zone and utilize out pitches when they’re warm. Carter Baumler shows the earliest of signs that he’ll be in a much better spot health wise by 2023 but in short bursts his stuff plays absolutely elite. So without major storylines, it seems that the organization actually can draft pitching that is develop-able. Little by little these events are on track to click together.
If that’s not enough for you, I fully understand. There are also plenty of short-stint arms that have been just as nasty including big names and some who are discussed less. If you’re a good hitter, somehow Nick Vespi is going to find you and strike you out. He’s an arm-and-stuff mix who’s as ready for regular use as they have right now. Seeing him in a big league pen going through his work more than once looks very right. For the lefty with plane-altering drop it seems more when not if. Looking towards a much different arm at a much different part of the system one stands out. Righty Yeankarlos Lleras has been pitching in Sarasota’s Gulf Coast League for a while with elite gas but less than stellar spin rates. It took one session to see that issue has been fixed and he is using a deeper arsenal to his advantage. Even if it’s just one pitch, that’s a sign of coaching and skill development. Another electric arm who looks to have more run on his heat is righty Ricky Ramirez. Already able to both get to and finish good counts, there have been signs that he put in work this off-season with his change of speed set and also his defense, more than once being in good fielding position or maintaining good fundamentals, which have both helped him once the ball is in play.
Another couple of arms are showing closer-type heat based arsenals. Vets David LeBron and Xavier Moore are humming right along and limit clean contact in the times I’ve seen them. Adam Stauffer and Dan Hammer are a pair of tall righties who seem to have slightly altered their patterns for the better. Hammer looks much healthier than 2021 and Stauffer looks to have a larger gap between off speed and heat; I saw him shredding hitters timing-wise early and often in multiple appearances. Shelton Perkins looks to have his movement patterns truly in midseason form, it’s great to see him throwing with confidence.
Again, there are a few who are new to me but making an impression as they show who they are. Thomas Girard and the ‘other’ DL, Daniel Lloyd, have pitched often against the Pirates minor leaguers but don’t get touched. Girard has shown to be equally effective against both handed hitters which stands out. Lloyd has outstanding natural run and drop on his stuff but his eye catching skill is cutting across the edges of the strike zone with precision not allowing the batter to get a center cut offering often.
I think that’s plenty to go forward as far as arms and controlling that aspect of the game yet the organization will get another stagnant pipeline part moving forward. International arms have now been in the system for years now and youngsters are now schooled in the new Oriole way. Flamethrowers like Moises Chace, Raul Rangel and Juan DeLos Santos are not supplemental pieces, they’re studs ready to leap forward in baseball gains. One of Kelvin LaRoche, Carlos Del Rosario, Adrion Lacle or Eduard Monroy could break out and leap levels too.
I’ve seen good starts from innings eaters like Houston Roth and Blaine Knight followed by solid appearances from relievers like Connor Gillispie and Ryan Conroy. Jensen Elliott looks to be in a good place with mix and results. My point of these paragraphs should be clear. There is enough pitching talent and depth to now expect an overall jump. Unless you pay attention to (and film) most of the details, you might be swayed by an unsubstantiated argument that the O’s are without arms. It’s not true in any way or at any level.
The Bats
Then there is the offense as a whole, and Aberdeen specifically. When I think about exactly how high the farm system will rise over the next year it will be guided by the arms but in so many ways powered by the bats. The last few drafts have been hitter centric so this being the period where hits and homers show the way shouldn’t be shocking. The excitement factor however is so stimulating featuring top class thump from the rookie leagues upward that it’s easy to see talent creating significant upward pressure no matter how you examine it.
There’s a sleeping giant angle to this off-season that’s hard to look past. I’ve thought it strange that there has been a lockout and just a few weeks of organized spring training creating a tight window, yet I’ve seen so much blurring of the lines between major and minor leagues offensively that it’s blown me away. One side of town has a nucleus of hungry youngsters driving forward every day and the other side of town has an aging core marked by under-performance and substandard play against the best players in the game. At the end of spring games, when the vets are out and the youngsters are in, it has a fitting feel and now, different than years past, has accompanying star power. Top prospects Gunnar Henderson, Colton Cowser, Joey Ortiz, John Rhodes, Jordan Westburg and Coby Mayo have joined some system stalwarts showing that their time is so very soon. Robert Neustrom, Zach Watson and Kyle Stowers have earned outfield reps, Stowers an extensive amount. One season from now the advancements in that group alone could sustain the upper levels of any organization. But in Baltimore that’s just a small part of a talented and much larger class.
Kyle Stowers dinger!!! You can hear it bang off the far wall. Score(?) is 3-1 pic.twitter.com/78EID5rtba
— Eric_Birdland (@Eric_Birdland) March 11, 2022
The organization has showed some updated variations in talent acquisition most notably taking calculated risks on high school hitters. Not a large sample size, but the punch of getting it right with Gunnar and Mayo then also with catcher Creed Willems are hat hangers for the scouts and evaluators. The rapid maturity in Creed as far as skill development, body change and seizing of a leadership role has been shocking. He’ll be in a much different place come March of 2023 and fans will love watching him get there. Willems can play and he brings a positive attitude to pair with a beautiful swing.
O’s catching prospect Creed Willems is making lots of progress very fast. Here’s a great pop and throw down to second. Play wasn’t made & I can’t see why but his part was smooth and strong #defense #backstop pic.twitter.com/2DI9l1jPga
— Eric_Birdland (@Eric_Birdland) March 25, 2022
Another catcher who has shown to thrive with a significant workload has been Connor Pavolony. The more I watch him go to work daily, the more it seems like he’s going to end up greater than the sum of some pretty good parts. Labeling him a good draft pick isn’t giving him credit. His pop-and-throw and throw itself have to be close to the top of the organization. A great feet-and-hands athlete with that natural core balance, he has the catcher ‘it’ factor where it seems he presents an ideal target for pitchers. Defense may carry him early, but his strong righty bat should create plenty of solid contact as he rises.
One more guy thriving in limited and somewhat staggered time behind the plate is Brayan Hernandez. Steady growth has him at the top of his game as far as movement/blocking/footwork and he’s also unleashed a throw or two that caught my eye down to second. The power bat is still loud. These few young backstops are changing the depth chart of this crucial position at the lower levels so it may seem less important, but to me this type of promise is worth pointing out.
So is the potential of lower level hitting talent to be much more advanced after this year. Expecting one name to pop out of a group like Stiven Acevedo, Josue Cruz, Mishael Deson, Elio Prado, Davis Tavarez, Isaac DeLeon, Moises Ramirez, Trendon Craig and Luis Gonzalez is selling them short. Tavarez’s level swing has produced several tape-measure blasts early.
Orioles OF prospect Davis Tavarez finishes his round w/the blast of the day deep to left. Next round he we t out oppo! pic.twitter.com/Y8UVuufHJx
— Eric_Birdland (@Eric_Birdland) March 15, 2022
That’s a much more skilled group climbing those low rungs than in years past and the difference is significant. Now add in draft picks like Anthony Servideo and Heston Kjerstad at varying points in the season and you start to notice a factory feel. There is a vibe like everywhere you explore you’ll see impact players getting better and gaining experience appropriate with their level of growth or expectation. The change is palpable on every level so far except the major league one.
In his brief period of practice and play, Kjerstad showed considerably more athleticism and burst than scouts told us he had out of college, which shows either he improved while out with myocarditis – or he had it all along. It’s unfortunate that Heston will miss a part of the 2022 campaign but important to remember that his health in the years to come outweighs any contribution now. Obviously it’s to everyone’s advantage for him to improve through playing now but instead he’ll grow by beating adversity, an important baseball quality where he’s getting better.
Looking at the group that will potentially make up the Aberdeen Ironbirds, it appears they’ll field an outstanding lineup. Pavolony, Mayo, Cowser, Rhodes, Donta Williams, Connor Norby, Jacob Teter, TT Bowens, Cèsar Prieto, Collin Burns and Darell Hernaiz make up a versatile and strong offense I see scoring with ease. That’s a lineup that can rally out of nowhere and destroy a bullpen by the middle of the week. Eventually supplemented by bats from the lower levels or the trainer’s room, the Ironbirds are explosive.
Moving up a level to AA-Bowie, the core is still so good and filled with potential. Young infielder Gunnar Henderson is the leader but will he stay at shortstop? Teammates Joey Ortiz and Jordan Westburg will have as much to say about that as he does and having them on the field together has to be a priority. Fans will focus on the infield, but I think based on where they are in development collectively that the corner rotation is equally intriguing. Christopher Cespedes, Toby Welk, JD Mundy and Andrew Daschbach each bring different approaches yet are all powerful and strong enough to be batting in run producing spots. The rangy outfield pair of Hudson Haskin and Shayne Fontana has shown so well in defensive drills so it wouldn’t surprise me if the pair shows up in the box score regularly along with footwork wizard John Rizer. Rizer’s OF skill set is so smooth and advanced I’d wonder if he should get a AAA look. So Bowie represents yet another level full of excellent future performers.
Speculating on the minors’ highest level, it seems there will be more upward-aiming movers than space-fillers but that’ll take shape more in the coming weeks after the organization makes its roster decisions. It’s probable that a battery featuring the two of the sport’s best prospects will play at Norfolk, joined by the organization’s co-player of the year from 2021. If the prospect of ace righty Grayson Rodriguez, catcher Adley Rutschman, and Stowers being the ones putting pressure on the big leaguers doesn’t thrill you to pieces, you stopped reading a while ago. Add in a hearty helping of sock from power hitters like Watson and Neustrom and the squad looks to have footing like the ones below it. One year from now this star studded handful should be playing at Oriole Park among other minor league graduates.
Finally, the last group represented in who I see improving a lot are the ones we don’t or haven’t watched: the injured. Servideo is one name I know is in town and rehabbing but not on the field much. Pitcher Brenan Hanifee is another one who’s still behind the scenes for the most part. OF Lamar Sparks is healthy and doing his thing outside and in scrimmages. He surprised me with a monster BP session two weeks ago. Reed Trimble is back in camp but not often outside. Trainers are tight-lipped when it comes to individual plans, but when it comes to contributors it makes sense that at least one player who is not available today will make an impact this season and the credit will be due to the medical staff. Kjerstad being the 2nd overall pick in 2020, I’d bet on him… but it could be anyone or several names as the organizational approach to health and rehab has been reworked.
There are so many reasons to focus on the minor leagues as the season gets closer, most of them positive. The team holds the top pick in June’s amateur draft. Talent from other countries will be stateside for the season starting in April. Improvement is a scheduled occurrence. Assets can still be dealt. Rule V eligible players stayed in house to continue their baseball education with those who developed them. As Oriole fans expect to compete for a top draft slot instead of playoff seeding for one more year (finally) the rising tide philosophy will have a chance to lift those willing to think in terms of growth. Not one person from fan to executive knows what will happen when the youngsters finally take over. The 2022 season represents a major series of coordinated improvements with impacts that should be felt for the better part of a decade, so it would be smart for Orioles rebuild fans to follow along.
Lots of it is already underway.
