Earl Weaver said it best: “You win pennants in the offseason when you build your team.”
Dan Duquette and the Orioles have to do just that, as they come off a tremendous 2014 season that came skidding to a halt when they were ousted from the playoffs by their exact opposite, the Kansas City Royals, in a four game sweep in the ALCS. Identifying why they failed while the Royals advanced is pretty easy – the Orioles continued to have deficiencies in two areas that they have largely ignored since they made their first playoff run of the century in 2012.
- On-base percentage
- Dominant starting pitching
These are the two areas the Orioles must address this offseason if they are serious about winning a World Series title.
First let’s take a look at the offense:
Offense
The Orioles hit 211 home runs in 2014, easily best in MLB and 25 more than the team ranked 2nd, the Colorado Rockies. However the Orioles were only 17th in MLB in on-base percentage (OBP) with a .311 mark. That ranking is an improvement over the past two seasons in rank, but it’s also the fifth straight year the Jim Presley-coached offense finished below the top 15.
So the first change is easy:
1. Replace hitting coach Jim Presley.
I may sound like a broken record as I’ve mentioned this move many times before, but the Orioles must change their offensive philosophy to advance to the World Series. Home runs are exciting, entertaining, and you do win games if you hit enough of them, but an offense that is constantly swinging for the fences doesn’t usually get a ring. Only the 2009 Yankees have both led the MLB in home runs and won a World Series title in recent years. Jim Presley knows no other way to coach, so replacing him would be a step in the right direction to try to provide more balance to the Orioles’ offense and their best shot at a title.
To borrow a line from my fellow writer Joe Polek though, “perception is reality” and I have no doubt that the Orioles will continue to make the wrong move and keep Jim Presley employed as hitting coach because of Buck Showalter’s undying loyalty – to a fault – for his coaching staff.
So if the Orioles can’t replace Presley, then they have to at least get players that won’t be influenced by his advice. That leads us to the next step:
2. Let Nelson Cruz walk
Nelson Cruz lead MLB in home runs, and was a force in the postseason, but he also is 34 and will cost a mint to sign. He’ll easily get a deal in the neighborhood of 4 years/$80 million or 5 years/$100 million given the deals Victor Martinez and Russell Martin just inked. All the Orioles have to do is look at the Carlos Beltran deal for the Yankees to see the risk of giving older OF/DH types that kind of money. Cruz also continued to post a mediocre OBP, ending up with a .333 OBP including only a .310 OBP vs. RHP.
If the Orioles do let Cruz walk, they’ll need a replacement, which leads to the next move:
3. Acquire Ike Davis
Ike Davis is somebody I advocated for last offseason as I felt he could be a great buy low candidate in a platoon role. After being traded by the Mets to the Pirates, he put up a .247/.360/.405/.765 line vs. RHP, admittedly lower than his career average splits. However he still had a 15.8% BB rate, which would have easily led the Orioles last season.
Davis could be non-tendered by the Pirates, but if he is tendered, the cost to acquire him would likely be fairly low. Davis is also only 27 and isn’t eligible for free agency until after 2016.
If you were to pair him with somebody like Steve Pearce in a DH platoon or possibly Matt Wieters as well, the Orioles could potentially get a lot of value and on-base ability out of their DH spot, something they wouldn’t get with an aging and expensive Cruz.
4. Acquire a left fielder
The Orioles also still have an unsettled outfield although they are trying to re-sign Nick Markakis. Let’s for all intents and purposes assume they get that done on a 4-year/$12-13 million per year deal. That leaves a spot in left field where the Orioles tried and failed to find a full time starter against either RHP or LHP in 2014. Two solutions can be found via trade or the free agent market:
4A. Trade Ubaldo Jimenez for Andre Ethier plus cash.
Ubaldo (0.5 fWAR) and Ethier (0.7 fWAR) both had down seasons last year, and although Ethier’s performance was only slightly better, he has at least shown consistency in his performance against RHP until last season. Ubaldo simply makes too much money for the inconsistency he has shown, and although he doesn’t give up a lot of home runs, he gives up walks which leads to short outings due to higher pitch counts, greater usage of the bullpen as a result and ultimately runs. Short outings by starting pitchers are not a recipe for sustained success, while Ethier’s on-base ability vs. RHP is.
To make the deal I would expect the Dodgers to kick in around $15-20 million while taking on Jimenez’s entire contract.
Again, I’d be counting on a bounce back year, but I think Ethier is capable of it. He just needs consistent playing time and a change of scenery to a park that fits his left-handed swing.
If the Dodgers and Orioles aren’t a match though, there is another option:
4B. Sign Nori Aoki to a 3-year/$30 million contract.
I am a huge Aoki fan and I’ve always thought his style of play would fit what the Orioles need perfectly. Aoki is a grinder at the plate (3.80 P/PA), as we saw in the ALCS, and that’s something the Orioles badly need. He’s not going to hit for power, but he will give you solid defense in the OF (+8.4 UZR/150) in spite of his occasional adventurous play out there, and an OBP of around .350 or better.
With the upgrades in OBP at the DH and LF position, the Orioles can take more advantage of their power.
Now let’s look at addressing what to do with position players already on the team.
5. Keep Matt Wieters and Chris Davis
Both Wieters and Davis should have rebound seasons that will at least net the Orioles those all-important draft picks if they both leave in free agency in 2016.
The lack of offense at the catching position showed badly in the playoffs where Wieters could have made some difference, but I would make Wieters the primary DH against LHP to ease him back behind the plate and protect his surgically repaired elbow. His bat is more valuable than his skills behind the dish so the Orioles need to make sure he can swing the bat effectively the whole season.
As for Davis, I think the suspension will motivate him, and let’s not forget he’ll be in a contract year, both good ingredients for that rebound season. Davis, also in spite of a down season, had a career high 11.4% BB rate and saw 4.17 P/PA so he didn’t abandon his patient approach at the plate.
6. Extend Steve Pearce.
Pearce is heading into his final year under arbitration and has shown he can be a valuable contributor in a platoon or starting role. Pearce led the Orioles in OBP (.373) and SLG (.556) last season. I’d be looking to give him a 2-year deal with an option. Power and OBP are hard and expensive to find, let alone in one player that can play multiple positions. After rejecting the Jays earlier in the season when he was released, it’s clear Pearce wants to play in Baltimore, Now is the time to lock him up and save some money in the process.
7. Non-tender Alejandro De Aza and David Lough
De Aza played well for the Orioles, but he’s too costly to retain in a fourth outfielder-type of role. Ditto for David Lough, who lost his job to De Aza. Seeing as Duquette found these type of players before for less than what both will likely get in arbitration, I would bet both could be replaced with somebody from the Rule 5 draft, waiver pickup or trade.
Pitching
The pitching of the Orioles also needs to be addressed, and although I’ve already mentioned what I’d do with Ubaldo Jimenez, we also need to decide about Andrew Miller, who had a dominant performance out of the bullpen. The choice is pretty simple:
1. Let Andrew Miller walk.
In spite of what they traded to get him, no reliever is going to be worth what Miller is going to get – likely a 4-year/$40 million deal if not more. That’s what you pay starting pitchers and teams that have usually given out long expensive deals to relievers have usually regretted those deals.
Instead, the Orioles should be looking to find the next potential Andrew Miller via a trade, waiver claim or even somebody who is non-tendered. There are usually plenty of cheap arms available this time of year, so it shouldn’t be that hard to find one. For example, Darren O’Day was a roster casualty from the Rangers before the Orioles picked him up. The Orioles’ closer, Zach Britton went from an inconsistent starter to a dominant, groundball machine as a reliever once the coaching staff got him to concentrate on throwing his sinking fastball for strikes. The talent is always out there, it’s just a matter of finding it, and adapting it to the role of the bullpen.
With the Miller situation addressed, the Orioles must next look at the starting rotation.
2. Trade for/sign a top of the rotation (TOR) pitcher.
After letting Miller and Cruz go, the Orioles should have resources to go out and either sign a dependable innings eater like Ervin Santana or they can go after a dominant ace pitcher via trade like Cole Hamels. Whatever they do, they simply can’t go into 2015 with the same rotation if they want to win a World Series. Dave Wallace did a good job with the talent he had, but the lack of an ace showed badly in the ALCS when the Orioles needed to have a pitcher that could shut down the opposition until at least the 7th inning to compensate for their power being neutralized against the opposing starter.
As we saw with Madison Bumgarner and the Giants, you have to have that ace to win a World Series championship. Gausman isn’t quite ready yet and Tillman, Norris and Chen are all number 2 or 3 starters at best, so the Orioles still need that ace that they never seem to want to pay the price for. Now they have to obtain one and there are no excuses not to.
3. Build depth in the bullpen and rotation with waiver claims, trades and minor league deals.
On the other hand, building quality pitching depth is something the Orioles have always done under Duquette. They could already have a leg up with Johan Santana because he’s still rehabbing in Sarasota under the Orioles’ care. Local product, Gavin Floyd could be another potential addition on a minor league contract after having his season with the Braves ruined by injury. Finding quality pitching depth is where the Orioles have excelled due to their scouting and they need to continue to do so.
4. Non-tender or trade Brian Matusz and Tommy Hunter
With the amount of money being thrown around this offseason, Matusz and Hunter would be seen as bargains for what they will command in arbitration, so the Orioles will likely tender them both. Both however could easily be replaced by internal options or cheaper external options for their performances, and it’s better to spend the money on the rotation or strengthening the on-base ability of the lineup.
With these moves or similar ones, the Orioles should be able to fix the problems that ended their season too soon, and give them another crack at ending their World Series drought of now 31 years.
Time is growing short however, as this team will likely face a major re-tooling or even a rebuild after this season because of all the players scheduled to be free agents. The core of the team is also no longer young with many players in their late 20s and early 30s so this is likely the best performance the Orioles will ever get from this roster as assembled.
Being competitive and entertaining is one thing, but if the Orioles are truly committed to bringing a World Series championship to Baltimore, now is the time to get serious about how to do it.
