CRYSTAL BALL: Looking at the O’s next 18 games

The next two and a half weeks will be very important for the Orioles (59-49). Including this week’s series with the Astros (36-70), they play four straight series against teams with below .500 records. These are the series the Orioles need to win.

The Rays went an absurd 21-5 in the month of July and have catapulted to the top of the division, trailing the Red Sox by just a half game.

If the Orioles plan on playing baseball in October, they are going to need to start stringing together some wins and in a hurry. What better teams to do it against than the cellar dwellers? Here are my picks for the next few series for the O’s.

Friday, the birds start a three-game series at home against the Mariners (50-57) and have their best pitchers going against the weak hitting team. This should be a series where the Orioles can bounce back, get some of their hitters on track, and maybe start a nice little winning streak. The Orioles have won eight of their last nine games at Camden Yards against the Mariners and should continue to keep up their winning ways against them. A sweep in this series would be nice, but two wins seem more realistic.

The Orioles then start an eight game road trip by traveling to San Diego to play the team that gave them fits in mid-May. The Padres beat the O’s twice at OPACY, kicking off their longest losing streak of the season. The Padres (50-59) have played well this past week but lets be real – they’re still the Padres. With all the trouble they have given the Orioles this year, I’m hoping for a quick two-game sweep and we will be on our way. You stay classy San Diego.

Next stop is San Francisco to take on the defending World Series Champions. Even though they are in the cellar of their division, I wouldn’t count out the Giants (47-59). This may be where the Orioles hit a rough patch. The Giants pitching staff will put up a fight against the Orioles lineup and I think the birds will be lucky to make it out of San Francisco with one win. We do get to see two of the best catchers in the game right now, both offensively and defensively, in Matt Wieters and Buster Posey, on the field at the same time.

In my scenario, the Orioles will look to rebound when they play a three-game set with the Arizona Diamondbacks (55-52). I think the Orioles will struggle in this series as well and will only escape the desert with one win. That gives the Orioles a record of 4-4 on their eight-game road trip.

Baltimore then returns home for another interleague series against the Rockies (51-58). I expect the bats to come alive with Adam Jones and Chris Davis hitting balls out of the yard and have the Rockies outfielders looking like Rahim Moore in the last 30 seconds of a certain playoff game. The Orioles will rebound from a less than stellar road trip and will begin gearing up for the last month with a sweep of the Rockies. The Rockies can take back Jason Hammel if they want too.

This next series will be very important as the Rays (64-44) come to town. As recently as June 28^th Tampa was seven games back, they now are ahead of the Orioles by five games. If the Orioles want to climb into the division race they will need to play some of their best baseball in this series. I expect Camden Yards to be as loud as it has been all year when the Orioles return home and take two out of three from the Rays.

That should keep the race for the A.L. East tight and hopefully can give the Orioles some momentum to make a run at the division title or a wild card spot. The Orioles have to play their style of ball – timely hitting, great fielding, quality starts from their starters, and dominance from their bullpen.

I think the Orioles will go 12-6 over their next 18 games including the series finale against the Astros tonight, giving them a record of 71-56. This should put them in solid position with one month to play.

How do you think the Orioles will fare over their next few series? More wins? More losses? Let me know.