With the news that the Orioles will not have Nelson Cruz in an Orioles uniform for 2015 and beyond, after he has agreed to a four-year deal with the Mariners, the Orioles know that they need to figure out how they are going to fill the DH role. However, we also learned yesterday that the Orioles may lose Nick Markakis as well this offseason, so now there may be holes in left field, at DH and in right field.
Is it time to press the panic button in Birdland?
Not even close, because the Orioles still have many external options available to them and most if not all could offer as much if not more value than Cruz and Markakis did in 2014.
So let’s look at five potential options to fill the OF/DH role:
1. Trade for a Dodgers outfielder
To me this is the best solution for one of the outfield spots – most likely right field. I’ve already mentioned Andre Ethier in a previous article, but there are reports that the Orioles are now discussing Matt Kemp with the Dodgers.
Kemp’s contract is not great value at five years, $107 million; however like Ethier, the Dodgers likely would be willing to eat a good portion of that money if they were able to get a good return. Kemp also put up a .971 OPS in the second half and had a .413 wOBA, easily besting both Cruz (.769 OPS, .335 wOBA) and Markakis (.701 OPS, .315 wOBA).
On the down side, Kemp’s defense was terrible in center (-33.8 UZR/150) and in left field (-40.3) for that matter, but when playing right field, Kemp (-6.7) did much better as he has for his career. Still he’d be a defensive downgrade to Markakis (+5.8) and should probably spend a considerable amount of time at DH like Cruz did.
After his second half, Kemp will be pricier to acquire than Ethier, but he does has the best upside of the two being two years younger. Ethier on the other hand has the better contract, is the better defender of the two, is more consistent and has fewer injury concerns.
The Orioles would probably have to give up some pitching with Dylan Bundy and Bud Norris being mentioned as names that the Dodgers might want for Kemp, though maybe only one of those two would be required. I would try to get them to take Ubaldo somehow, and I think they would in an Ethier deal.
Ether Dodgers outfielder though should be able to replace Markakis in right field with some platoon and defensive help in the later innings and that combination may even be an upgrade over what Markakis would have for production offensively around the same price.
2. Sign Nori Aoki
Aoki is another name I mentioned previously in that same article, so like Either I won’t write too much about him here. Even if the Orioles do acquire Kemp or Ethier, Aoki would be a great fit in right or left field. At this point I think a 3/30 contract is probably the ceiling for what he would get, so he should be right in the Orioles’ sweet spot for a price and he has no draft pick compensation attached.
3. Sign Torii Hunter
Hunter may be almost 40 years old – but he’s still a solid bat to have in your lineup, just as long as he doesn’t see the OF much or if at all. Hunter had a terrible year defensively in the outfield (-20.1 UZR/150), which makes sense considering his age. However he still had a .335 wOBA in 2014 and still has postseason experience even though he hasn’t had much success at the plate the past couple of seasons.
The X-factor here is Hunter being Adam Jones’ mentor. Hunter could help Jones I think at least figure out how to get the most out of his free swinging ways to continue to have success as his bat speed declined – especially on how to spoil pitches and strike out less as Hunter learned to do later in his career. Even if he has a mediocre year at the plate, helping Jones be successful long-term will be worth a one-year deal if he can do it. A clubhouse with Jones and Hunter in it would also certainly be quite entertaining.
I wouldn’t go any higher that a 1/7 or 1/8 deal plus incentives for Hunter though – similar to what the Orioles gave Vlad Guerrero. We may not have to wait long to see what the Orioles do as Hunter apparently wants to decide his next team by the end of the week and the Orioles are one of the four finalists for him.
4. Sign Melky Cabrera
Cabrera is another player who was suspended for PED use that had a bounce back season in 2015. Though nowhere near the production level he had with the Giants, he was able to put up a solid .301/.351/.458/.809 line with a .354 wOBA as a switch hitter.
His defensive reputation however is never been strong and he lived up to that with a -5.8 UZR/150 rating in the outfield for Toronto in 2014.
Like Hunter, even though he’s younger, the DH role seems to be his best fit for the Orioles, but he could see some time in the outfield like Cruz did in 2014.
Cabrera has been connected to the Orioles as a back burner option to Markakis even though he’d cost a draft pick. Now that the Orioles will be getting the 19th pick back from the Mariners, that pick may make the loss of their first round pick to Toronto even less of an issue. Cabrera will also probably get a four-year deal around $12-13 million or so – similar to what was offered to Markakis so he should fit within their budget.
If other options including Markakis and Hunter don’t pan out, I’d expect his name to come up at the Winter Meetings.
5. Trade for Justin Upton
The Braves are listening to offers for Upton due to his free agency status after 2015 and it’s been reported he’ll likely be traded. With John Hart now in charge instead of Frank Wren, and with Hart’s good relationship with Showalter, one would think the Orioles could be a destination for the Virginia native. Upton is a name that has come up in previous offseasons before due to his local ties, and the Orioles’ constant need to upgrade their outfield, so this offseason is no different.
Upton brings a powerful right-handed bat like Cruz (25+ HR in the past two seasons), but unlike Cruz he’s much younger, and has better on base ability (career .359 wOBA). Upton’s defense however, hasn’t been that great the past two seasons as he’s posted a -11.1 UZR/150 in 2014 and a -1.1 UZR/150 in 2014 while playing the outfield for the Braves.
The price to obtain Upton also makes him the least likely option so far, as the Braves reportedly want more than they got back for Jason Heyward who will also be a free agent after 2015. The Orioles have been wary to part with their very best pitching prospects, and it would likely take one of Bundy, Kevin Gausman or Hunter Harvey to land Upton, something the Orioles probably wouldn’t do for a one-year rental.
Time will tell, but with all those options on the board and more, in spite of Cruz and maybe Markakis being off it, Orioles fans should not reach for the panic button yet.
What we do know is that Jim Presley won’t be the hitting coach, and the Orioles won’t have a 35-38 year old OF/DH to worry about breaking down for over $14 million per season. Those were things that needed to unfold as they did, and they have.
All is still well for the Orioles’ offseason and their chance at ending their 30 years and counting World Series drought for now. We’ll have to see what December, January and maybe even February brings before truly seeing what team has been assembled and if the holes have been filled.
It’s better for Orioles fans to press the snooze button instead of the panic button for now.
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