The Orioles enter this weekend’s series vs the Giants with a 6-6 record. They are coming off a sweep of the Chicago White Sox, after being swept by the Pirates. All in all, I think 6-6 is an accurate representation of how the Orioles played this year. It is obviously early and sample sizes are too small to take much from them but there are still things worth discussing.
Pitching Has Been Good, Except…
First, let’s look at the pitching. Overall, I have been pleased with the staff. They are only 18th in team ERA but they are 9th in xERA and 15th in FIP. Their K rate is 12th and they are 8th in HR rate. The biggest issue with the staff has been the walks. They are 23rd in BB rate, walking almost 4.5 batters per 9 IP. That number must come down. The weather has been against them; it’s not easy to pitch when it is very cold, and at least some of the command issues could be because of feel early on. Still, other teams are dealing with similar conditions and don’t have the same level of command issues. Also, colder weather isn’t great for offense either, so some of this stuff balances out.
The two biggest issues so far have been Chris Bassitt and Kyle Bradish. Bassitt has looked awful early on and while I think the Charlie Morton 2.0 talk is dumb, they still need to learn their lesson from the Morton experience. Morton got about a month of the season last year to work through things. The Orioles can’t afford to give Bassitt the same amount of rope. To me, he gets one more start to turn things around. The Giants have not had a good offense early on, so it’s a good team for him to have a get-right game. If he does not, move him to the pen and let him work things out there. You can’t waste a month-plus of blowups like you did with Morton.
We obviously have higher hopes for Bradish, and while he has shown glimpses so far, his command issues have made him hittable and he’s not missing bats the way he needs to. His outing the other day against the White Sox was a good example of a guy who was unlucky but also hittable. Having players put the ball in play, even weak contact, can hurt you. That is why missing bats and getting strikeouts is so important. I am not worried about Bradish, but the O’s need him to be the pitcher he was before the TJ surgery for them to reach their potential ceiling.
I have been pleasantly surprised by the bullpen thus far. There are some very good arms out there and some no-name guys that I think can continue to pitch well. Rico Garcia, Grant Wolfram and Anthony Nunez have legit major league stuff. If the command and control can be there, they will be successful. Ryan Helsley’s stuff looks good early on, but he has had some command issues. He also hasn’t pitched a lot, going almost a full week between his second and third appearances.
Tyler Wells has been my most disappointing reliever early on. A pitcher known for his command and control, he has been erratic and hasn’t had that normal pinpoint command. If his command isn’t going to be good, he won’t be successful. The stuff isn’t good enough for that. He is already a guy you are always nervous about because he will give up homers, but if he is also allowing baserunners, he can become unplayable very quickly.
Overall, the pen has some good numbers. They are 4th in the majors in K Rate. They are 13th in ERA and 11th in xERA. Like the starting rotation, they have given up way too many walks and that has to get fixed. Still, I feel pretty good about the pen, and we should be getting Andrew Kittredge back soon and that should help even more.
Defense Hasn’t Helped
Part of the issue for the pitching staff has been the porous defense. That was my #1 issue entering the season and the only thing that has happened to ease any level of concern is that Coby Mayo looks good over at third (although he’s not hitting, so he could find himself in AAA soon enough). However, my biggest concern was the outfield defense, and that is atrocious. I know everyone is loving Taylor Ward right now, but this was also part of the reason I hated that trade. The outfield defense needed to be addressed, and putting a corner outfielder in CF (Colton Cowser) and trying to mix and match mediocre corner outfielders (Dylan Beavers, Ward and Tyler O’Neill) is just not the way to build a championship defense.
That defense has cost them early. A lot of the runs given up have been because of bad defense. Whether errors or just simply not getting to balls that better fielders get to, it’s been a huge problem and made the pitchers look worse than they have actually performed (see the difference between staff ERA and xERA as an example). I am not sure what will change this issue. Perhaps Enrique Bradfield will show he can hit enough to be up here to play CF every day. That would certainly be a step in the right direction, but it will make an already crowded and odd roster setup even more complicated. However, if that is what is best for the team, you do it and deal with the roster issues however you can.
Uneven Offense
Offensively, things are very up and down. One thing I keep seeing from Oriole fans is that the offense is just the same ole offense, i.e. swinging for the fences all the time. I think that is way off. First, the O’s are top 10 in BB%, P/PA, OBP and wRC+. They are also 11th in wOBA. These are huge differences from the offense in recent years. What is ironic, especially within the context of fans complaining about them “swinging for the fences” is the biggest reason they aren’t scoring runs is due to the lack of homers and just power overall. The very thing that people like to complain about is the exact reason we aren’t scoring runs.
That said, I do not think that continues. Pete Alonso, Ward, Samuel Basallo, and others will all start hitting homers and will hit them at a high rate. If the Orioles can maintain a league average or better OBP and walk rate, they will score a ton of runs. Yes, they have had some RISP issues like we have seen but that stuff comes and goes.
So far, Gunnar Henderson looks to be a player poised for a big year. I say that and he really hasn’t even broken out this year. He isn’t hitting the ball as hard and his K rate is up. But I think we see a 7+ WAR season from him unless his defense is atrocious and holds him down some.
Alonso just had an awful road trip, and the concern is that his bat speed is way down. Now, there are theories out there about the cold weather and just timing being an issue, but this is still a player on the wrong side of 30 and at any moment, those guys can drop off. I expect that to happen with Alonso during this five-year contract, but I did think it would be a few more years down the road. I suspect he will be fine, but this is at least something to watch.
All in all, I can’t say I am happy with the start, nor can I say I am upset by it and that is a reflection of why I think a 6-6 record is about as good as they could have hoped for at this point in the season.
I worry that the defense could derail the season just enough. I also expect it to at least get a little better but really, I am looking for the offense to generate a lot more runs and cover up some of the defensive liabilities.
I feel Mike Elias is going to have to change this roster as the season goes on, but there is enough here to be excited about. This six-game homestand is important. They need Bassitt and Bradish to right the ship. They have to withstand facing Logan Webb and they need Cade Povich to give them a good start and keep them in the game. If those things happen, I feel fairly good about a 4-2 type homestand wherein the team starts to build more and more confidence. Last year, the team got off to a mediocre start, started to play worse as injuries piled up, then buried themselves in a horrid 26-game stretch. They have had some bad injury luck again to start the year, but they can’t allow it to bury them and so far, they have not.
They need to keep that momentum up and hopefully some warmer weather (near-record highs in Baltimore next week) will wake up the power in the bats.
