Things have been decidedly better in Birdland lately. Though the squad is coming off a disappointing series loss to the Sacramento Athletics to finish up the west coast swing, it was still a 4-2 trip overall that saw the Birds put a bow on a six-game winning streak, their longest such streak in nearly a calendar year.
They’re 10-7 since May 21, and while I’m admittedly cherry-picking a bit to paint a rosier picture, I think we can all agree that we’ve watched a much more entertaining and competitive brand of baseball over the past three weeks or so than that to which we’d become accustomed through April and early May.
This no longer looks like a 100-loss team (which was inexplicable anyway).
Of course, we have to mention that, thanks to the hole they dug for themselves, “good” baseball won’t be nearly enough to salvage the season to the extent of playing meaningful September games. That would require a “great” stretch, and several more long winning streaks.
At 26-38 through 64 games, the O’s would have to go 60-38 over their final 98 to get to 86 wins and any realistic shot at the third wild card spot. That’s a .612 winning percentage, or a 99-win pace over 162 games.
Is there reason to believe they can do that? Well, maybe!
Starting Pitching
The Birds’ starting pitching has (sigh…had) turned things around in a big way lately. To whit:
Lowest rotation ERA in baseball since May 20 vs. their ERAs prior:
1. Rays, 1.75 (4.20 prior)
2. Tigers, 2.25 (3.42)
3. Brewers, 2.38 (3.82)
4. Giants, 2.39 (3.85)
5. Orioles, 2.47 (6.03)Baltimore’s pitching staff has completely flipped the switch.
— Matt Weyrich (@ByMattWeyrich) June 5, 2025
The #Orioles' rotation has posted a 1.99 ERA over past 9 games, a stretch featuring a season-long 4-game win streak, another 3-game win streak and 6 starts with 1 or fewer runs allowed.
Tony Mansolino: "It helps a lot. It’s hard to win in this game without starting pitching." https://t.co/daaZlXSWkR pic.twitter.com/ZLdibb8VTJ
— Jake Rill (@JakeDRill) June 4, 2025
During the recent hot stretch, we saw great starting pitching performances from everyone in the rotation, plus someone who made a spot start. Dean Kremer, Tomoyuki Sugano, Cade Povich, Zach Eflin, Charlie Morton, and even the much-maligned Trevor Rogers contributed in big ways.
Unfortunately, that wasn’t the case over the weekend. Kremer, staked to a 3-o lead and having cruised through the first two innings on 15 total pitches, imploded in the third when his command abandoned him, allowing four runs. He gave up another in the fifth, and the winning streak ended in a 5-4 defeat. Morton matched Kremer’s third with an equally awful four-run first on Saturday, going just 2.1 before being pulled. Even Tommy Sugar struggled on Sunday, giving up four over the first two frames.
Maybe it was the shock of pitching in a minor-league ballpark, or maybe we saw some instant regression to the mean. Either way, the rotation is going to have a big say in how things look going forward. Are they who we saw from May 24 – June 4?
Or who they were most of this season and this past weekend?
The Return of Dadley
One of the most pleasant sights for sore eyes of the last few weeks has been the play of one Adley Rutschman. Those of us who made excuses for his poor second half of 2024 felt vindicated on Opening Day, when he hit two home runs in Toronto. Since then though, the naysayers screaming “BUST!” were feeling more and more smug. From July 1 of last year through May 20, Adley hit just .200/.285/.305 (72 wRC+) and amassed 0.2 fWAR.
Finally, mercifully, Adley seems to have remembered who he is. Since May 21, Rutschman is batting .281/.379/.474, a 147 wRC+, and has amassed 0.6 fWAR. He’s raised his season OPS back to .695.
How’d he do it?
"He has gone back to what he's done best and he seems to be all over the heater…"@markdero7 shows the tinkering Adley Rutschman has made at the plate, getting rid of his leg kick ⬇️ https://t.co/Lq7PGo8VrA pic.twitter.com/NwO1sH3Aa0
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) June 6, 2025
In six games in June, Adley has walked as much as he has struck out, while hitting .417/.481/.708, a team-leading 240 wRC+.
What took so long for this to happen? Your guess is as good as mine. I’m just glad it finally has.
Sayonara, Sadley. Welcome back, Dadley.
Getting Healthy
Another reason for some O’ptimism is that the Birds are finally getting healthier. We have recently welcomed Colton Cowser back into the lineup for the first time since the fourth game of the season, and he’s contributed instantly. In six games back, Moo Man is hitting .286/.318/.619, a .937 OPS, and is second on the team in wRC+ (164) behind Dadley.
He launched this one to the MOOOOOOON on Saturday night:
MOOOOOOOOO pic.twitter.com/fYQYha3hDc
— Baltimore Orioles (@Orioles) June 8, 2025
The 455-foot home run was the longest by an Oriole since Ryan Mountcastle blasted one 470 in June of 2023 (more on him in a moment). It would have been nice if he’d made that catch in CF during the Athletics’ four-run third on Saturday night, but I digress…
In addition to Cowser, Jordan Westburg is set to rejoin the team this week. Tyler O’Neill and Gary Sanchez aren’t far behind, though it’s a bit tougher to get excited about those two, considering the way Dylan Carlson and Ramon Laureano have hit, and the solid fundamental vibes of Maverick Handley.
Mounty, unfortunately, is out for 8-12 weeks with a Grade 2 hamstring strain. On the other hand, his bat hasn’t shown up to the 2025 campaign at all yet, so the lineup shouldn’t miss much of a beat, especially with Coby Mayo looking more like he belongs at the moment. Tony Mansolino would be wise to stop putting Emmanuel Rivera at first base though.
Now, the bad news…or, why a 99-win pace is probably not in the cards.
Can’t Hit Lefties
The Orioles still can’t hit left-handed pitching. Like, at all.
The worst teams vs. LHP in MLB's divisional era (since 1969):
1. 2025 Orioles — .559 OPS
2. 1971 Brewers — .574 OPS
3. 1972 Rangers — .577 OPS
4. 1972 Indians — .580 OPS
5. 2025 Rockies — .589 OPSThe Orioles, if they lose today, will be 3-12 vs. lefty starters this year.
— Jacob Calvin Meyer (@jcalvinmeyer) June 8, 2025
Of course, they did in fact lose that day, and the 3-12 prophecy was fulfilled. That was against the Athletics’ Jacob Lopez, who entered the game with a 7.20 ERA.
It boggles the mind. Can O’Neill and Sanchez help here? It would sure be nice! But nothing they did in April or May inspires much confidence.
Tougher Schedule
While the O’s did manage to sweep the over-.500 Mariners in Seattle, an impressive feat, we do have to acknowledge that the first half of the six-game winning streak came against the lowly Chicago White Sox. A few weeks ago, we feared the ChiSox would actually smack our Birds around a bit, so I don’t want to poo-poo it too much, but the fact remains.
May was supposed to be the “soft” part of the schedule, and we all know how that went. Things are about to get much tougher.
The Detroit Tigers are about to come to town (and yes, the O’s see Tarik Skubal in game 3, so chalk that one up as a loss already), followed by the plucky Los Angeles Angels. After that it’s four in another minor-league park against the Rays, then three in New York. It’s Texas and Tampa again, then Texas again to close out the month.
That’s rough. If there’s reason for some hope, it’s that the O’s are always better against division opponents, for whatever reason. They even managed to take two of three from the Yankees back in April in between getting their lunch money stolen by the Nationals, Tigers, Royals, and Twins. So maybe they’ll be alright?
In the end, it’s tough to be overly excited about how things are about to go. But that beats, by a mile, being depressed and looking for other things to do by the third inning of every game, as was the case not long ago at all.
