I’ll be the first to admit, this is a rage-bait headline.
Well at least it got you here.
This was inspired by a passing comparison that I tweeted without thinking, forgot about, then went back to twitter to see one of my most ratio-ed tweets ever.
Alright, it’s not that bad of a ratio. Clearly, I’m not that controversial of an Orioles observer.
People (especially fans of other teams) got quite a kick out of this comparison. I thought it would be fun to go through and reply (in article form) to some responses to this tweet – both the bizarre and the substantive.
Cole and Baz Pitched for Different Teams When They Were Traded So It’s Not The Same (?)
First up, we’ll go with the bizarre. This one threw me a bit. I had to read it a few times. I guess this guy thought I meant that because Baz and Cole both were in Pittsburgh’s system at some point that’s what I was talking about? I thought that was a pretty odd takeaway, but hey, to each their own, sometimes the human brain can perceive a thing quite differently!
Let’s more to some more sensible takes…
Cole Had a Much Higher Pedigree Prior to Being Traded So It Isn’t The Same
Ok this is some substantive criticism. I can definitely concede that Cole had much more of a track record at the time of his trade to Houston than Baz currently does. Cole was a former 1-1 pick in the 2011 draft and had indeed accrued top-ballot Cy Young votes (finishing 4th) in 2015 as a 24-year-old. While Baz did peak as a top-10 prospect in baseball (#8 per Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus prior to the 2022 season), he didn’t have nearly the pedigree or resume as Cole.
What I meant by comparing the two is their recent performance (the last two years) prior to being traded. Let’s compare side by side using baseball reference:
While Cole was the slightly better pitcher overall in terms of WAR (4.1 to Baz’s 2.6) and ERA (4.12 to Baz’s 4.29) Baz was a good bit harder to hit (7.9 H/9 vs Cole’s 9.3 H/9) and was missing more bats than Cole (9.0 K/9 to Cole’s 8.3 K/9).
Many commentators have already noted this, but Baz pitched in a minor league ballpark (George Steinbrenner Field) that was catastrophic for pitcher home run rates in 2025.
In 2024, when Baz pitched at home in the Trop, he allowed 1.0 HR/9. In 2025, that spiked to 1.4 HR/9. Using Baseball Savant’s HR-Ballpark tool, Baz allowed 26 HR and would have allowed 19 if he pitched all his games in OPACY (and OPACY is a pretty good park for LH power). This would have likely reduced his ERA to high-3s/low 4s, if he was pitching elsewhere.
Baz and Cole in the two years prior to being traded looked like very similar pitchers, at least insofar as results go. If you adjusted Baz’s HR rate for the ballpark, Baz and Cole would look basically identical, with Baz maybe even getting the edge.
Unfortunately, I can’t pull any stuff+ numbers prior to 2021 (they don’t seem to exist publicly, or maybe they didn’t exist at all).However, I was able to pull the stuff+ and location+ numbers from Fangraphs from the last time we saw these two pitchers (Cole in 2024, Baz in 2025).
Interesting! The last time we saw Cole and Baz respectively, their stuff quality graded out as almost identical; and their Pitching+ score (which weights stuff and location/command) graded out at an identical 107.
They even have essentially the same arsenal if you look at the specific pitch times (Four-seam, cutter, slider, change-up, knuckle-curve).
The similarities are uncanny. I think it’s possible that either the Rays or Baz himself tried to emulate Cole as they developed Baz’s arsenal.
While Cole edges (and I stress edges—really just by a hair) Baz out in the overall arsenal quality, Baz blows Cole out of the water in terms of his best graded pitch (125 stuff+ knuckle-curve for Baz as compared to a 112 stuff+ slider for Cole.)
Clearly Cole is a much more refined, mature pitcher who outclasses Baz in terms of pitch sequencing and other softer qualities that are harder to quantify.
Yet putting Cole and Baz’s pre-trade seasons (with the context of Baz’s home park in 2025), their current stuff quality, and the eerie similarity between their arsenals, it’s actually hard not to see the comparison between Cole (at the time of his trade) and Baz, today.
In a piece by Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, Mike Elias echoed this sentiment:
“He’s got great underlying metrics, five plus pitches,” Elias said. “I think he’s got a great arm and he’s a great athlete, and I think he hasn’t fully tapped into his ceiling yet, so we see him as a front-end-of-the-rotation starter. I think he has a ceiling to tap into being a top-of-the-rotation starter. We’re not necessarily asking that of him in 2026, but he has that potential. He has one of the best starting pitcher arms in the major leagues and he’s got really elite stuff.”
Nobody Wins a Trade With the Rays.
I agree with the underlying idea that the Rays are a smart team. But, so are the Orioles. I also think the idea of “losing the trade” is pretty hollow, especially in a case like this where the Orioles traded a number of players that likely won’t debut for the Rays until 2027/2028, at earliest, for an immediate rotation piece.
Also, remind me how the players in the Zach Eflin trade performed in 2025? I think it’s fair to say the Orioles got their value from Eflin in 2024, despite his poor 2025 performance. How did the Rays do, thus far?
Matthew Etzel: 0.726 OPS
Jackson Baumeister: 4.26 ERA
Mac Horvath: 0.729 OPS
Those early returns from the Zach Eflin trade aren’t exactly leaving me despondent.
And now, to the other side of the ledger…
I am right because other smart people agree!
Ha! Thank you Jordan. Validation from pitching-guru-in-residence Eno Sarris. If I’m not mistaken, Eno did react to this trade and changed his current comp (that tweet was from 2022) for Shane Baz to… ADAM WAINRIGHT (???). I think it’s safe to say Eno and Elias agree that Baz has top-30 SP upside.
We’re going off the rails here, so let me summarize my argument and let you get on with your day.
- Pre-trade Gerrit Cole and Shane Baz had very comparable numbers the two years before they were traded.
- Most recent stuff comparisons grade them out as almost identical.
- Their literal arsenals are pretty much identical with Cole grading out as deeper whereas Baz has the best individual pitch, stuff-wise.
Elias clearly sees Baz as a current mid-rotation talent with top-of-the-rotation upside. This is the kind of guy that you can tolerate giving you a low-mid 4s ERA at the back end of your rotation as a median outcome, but who also increases the ceiling of your team if he pops (in a way that a guy like Dean Kremer has pretty much no chance to).
I always encourage people to dunk on me if I’m wrong, and this trade is terrible for the Orioles.
However, you best believe if Baz breaks out in 2026, this piece will be VIGOROUSLY reposted.
