In each of the past three seasons, the Orioles have played a four-game road series against the Cleveland Guardians.
They didn’t win any of them. Since 2023, Baltimore has a 5-7 record when playing in Cleveland.
In every single series against the Guardians since the 2022 season, the O’s have dropped the first game. Every single one.
History suggests negative results for Baltimore’s upcoming series as they look to rebound from back-to-back losses against the Arizona Diamondbacks. But, Cleveland has lost its last two series with a 2-4 record in the past six games, and the O’s have a 5-1 record against AL Central teams this year.
So, here’s to breaking trends?
Sitting at a 10-9 record ahead of Thursday’s contest, the Guardians hold second place in the AL East, behind Baltimore’s Opening Day opponent Minnesota Twins. Though they have only played two home series, Cleveland holds a 4-2 record this season at Progressive Field. A season after winning the AL Central, despite being one of the least efficient teams from the plate, the Guardians are riding some early pitching dominance as they search for their fourth playoff appearance in five years.
Thursday’s opener will feature the fourth start of the season for Birds right-hander Shane Baz. His last came in the O’s city connect debut—a 6-3 loss to the San Francisco Giants in which he was shelled for nine hits. Guardians hitters are a combined 6-for-30 (.200) against Baz in their careers.
Baz will face the red-hot Parker Messick to begin Baltimore’s first four-game series of 2026. Messick, 25, has allowed a single run through his first 17 ⅔ innings of his second big league season. With a ridiculous 0.50 ERA, Cleveland has yet to lose a Messick start this season. So, after playing nothing but righties to start the season, Baltimore will play consecutive dominant left-handed arms.
Chris Bassitt will get the nod for game two. Though it does not mean much, the 37-year-old is coming off his best start, a one-earned run outing against the Giants. The O’s are hoping Bassitt’s second road start will be stronger than his first, when the team crumbled in Pittsburgh on Easter.
Cleveland’s second starter is a struggling Tanner Bibee. The 27-year-old owns a 6.38 ERA in four starts, which is 13 earned runs in 18 ⅓ innings. Gunnar Henderson should be happy to see Bibee take the mound, hitting 4-for-9 with a home run off the righty in his career.
Dean Kremer is expected to make his second start of the season on Saturday. His first started with a bang…literally. D-Backs second baseman Ketel Marte took Kremer’s first big league pitch of the year 443 feet for a leadoff solo shot. The 30-year-old righty has accumulated a 5.40 ERA in five career appearances against the Guardians.
Right-handed starter Gavin Williams will take the mound for Cleveland on Saturday. Williams, 26, has posted a 2.38 ERA in 22 ⅔ innings pitched this season. The catch? He loses control. Williams led the MLB in walks a season ago (83), and through just under a month of baseball in 2026, he still holds the lead (16).
Trevor Rogers will wrap up Baltimore’s third road series of the new campaign after his uncharacteristic start against Arizona. Rogers has allowed eight earned runs this season, half in the fifth inning of Tuesday’s game against the D-Backs, and half across his first three starts of the season. The veteran lefty has never started a win against Cleveland in his career.
Rogers is projected to face left-hander Joey Cantillo, another Guardians starter with a sub-three ERA. Cantillo, 26, has notched 24 strikeouts in 20 ⅔ innings pitched. In his last start against Baltimore on July 22, 2025, he allowed just one earned run in five innings.
Birds to Watch
Jeremiah Jackson, 2B
The question everyone is asking: Can Jeremiah Jackson keep it up?
Baltimore’s second baseman is looking to continue a six-game hit streak and two-series home run streak.
The explosive surge from Jackson has been a sight to see for a stagnant O’s offense.
And, as they look to rebound from back-to-back losses, he will play a key role in the overall performance of Baltimore’s lineup.
Gunnar Henderson, SS
After going 2-for-15 against Arizona, Baltimore’s All-Star shortstop is looking to get back on track at the plate.
Henderson is hitting .333 against Cleveland in his career, his third-highest career batting average against AL teams.
He has logged five homers and 16 RBIs against Cleveland in his career, one of those homers coming against right-hander Bibee.
Should Baltimore steal some games from the Guardians on the road, they will need some pop from their premium hitter.
Albert Suarez, RHP
Veteran reliever Albert Suarez is coming off the worst appearance of his young season.
The 37-year-old allowed three earned runs in an outburst against the Diamondbacks.
Pair that with his three runs allowed through 1 ⅔ career innings against Cleveland, and this becomes a prove-it series for Suarez.
Can he right the ship and reclaim his status as a reliable veteran presence in Baltimore’s bullpen?
Keys to the Series
Good plate discipline
The Guardians rank fifth in team strikeouts and 10th in team walks allowed this season. Cleveland’s third starter, Williams, leads the league in walks. Baltimore needs to take a conservative approach in this one, taking advantage of potential errant Cleveland pitching.
Get to Cleveland’s bullpen
The dominance from Cleveland’s pitching is derived from their starters. Their bullpen? They rank seventh in highest unit ERA (5.08). If the O’s can extend at-bats and stay focused at the plate, they can enter a unit that has allowed the fifth-most home runs by a bullpen in 2026 (11).
Starts that exceed five innings
In the Orioles’ last nine games, three of them have seen starts that exceeded five innings. Kyle Bradish’s outing against Arizona marked the latest, giving the team a 2-1 record in the last three series when the starter entered the sixth inning. Cleveland’s offense has been middle-of-the-pack to start 2026, which makes this a very possible achievement.
