The Orioles came into the offseason with several items on their to-do list and they checked off a big one this week, when they signed Pete Alonso to a 5-year deal worth $155M. This represents the biggest contract Mike Elias has signed and shows a shift in his thinking when it comes to free agency.
Was this a “good” deal? I do think that’s up for some debate, depending on what you value but one thing I think we can all agree on is that the Orioles finally stepped up to ensure they got their guy.
There is a story that has been talked about for years when it comes to the Washington Nationals and the Jayson Werth overpay. That was a contract that was widely criticized around the league. However, the Nationals viewed it as a deal to announce to players, agents and the baseball world as a whole that they were ready to be real threats in the free agent market. That deal helped get them other deals later and it helped to build a foundation for a World Series team.
Does this deal represent the same thing for the Orioles? Time will tell, but it has that feeling about it.
What about Alonso on the field? Is this deal worth it? I must admit, I am a bit skeptical, as I worry about how he ages and how this deal will look 3-5 years down the road. I do think it’s fair to point out some things about Alonso that should give us hope that he is worth this deal.
First, according to the Fangraphs formula for determining the value of a win, Alonso has only been worth $31M in one season of his career, which was in 2019. He has been close in three other seasons. In that regard, using their formula, it is unlikely that Alonso will be “worth” his contract. However, we must remember that first base gets dinged a lot in that formula and while you can’t ignore that fact, it doesn’t necessarily mean that he wasn’t a productive asset. People use different WAR stats. For me, I prefer the Fangraphs version because of its inputs. It is generally considered the best of the WAR stats. However, we do not see a breakdown of it in terms of offense and defense.
Baseball Reference does that sort of breakdown, and Alonso’s oWAR has never been below 2.7 by their calculation. In four of his six full seasons (not including 2020) his oWAR has been 3.5 or higher. It topped out at 5.6 in 2019, but he has had two other seasons over 4 oWAR, including 2025. FanGraphs values one win at about $8M, so if you use that number for the Baseball Reference oWAR, he has had three seasons where he was worth over $31M and one other one that was close.
So, that is the “nerdy” way of looking at his value in terms of strictly dollars and wins.
Let’s now look at his actual production.
Count me as someone who is worried about how he ages, but something I read about him does make sense and gives me hope that he can sustain things better than some other players with similar profiles in the past. Alonso, especially for a power hitter, does a good job of making contact and not swinging and missing a lot. Look at some of the best power hitters in the game. Players like Aaron Judge, Kyle Schwarber, Shohei Ohtani, Cal Raleigh and Rafael Devers have WHIFF rates that are at or near the bottom of the league. Alonso is at 40%. Now, that is still below league average, but it’s much better than that of most big power hitters. He has also hit .260 or better four times, so he isn’t some three-outcome guy.
Then, look at the rest of his stats. I feel that we have gone away from traditional, old-school stats a little too much. Yes, the new school stats are better but that doesn’t mean the old school stats should be thrown away. One issue the Orioles have is they simply don’t have guys that drive in runs. They either can’t do it or, more likely, haven’t learned how to do it. The RBI stat can be an empty one in any given year, but over the course of a career, it means something (similar to pitcher wins).
Alonso has never had fewer than 88 RBIs in any full season. He has posted over 100 in four of his six full seasons and 94 in another. I feel that means something, especially on this team. Last year, the team high in RBIs was 68. I know, guys had injuries, and those numbers will likely be better going forward but still, that’s a pathetic stat.
One legit knock on Pete is his base running. He is one of the slowest players in the league and his base running value is negative, but he still has never had a season where he scored fewer than 80 runs. He has scored over 90 runs four times. So yes, he is slow and it will hurt at times, but he gets on base and scores.
And of course, you must talk about his power, which is his main calling card. He has never had a full season where he hit fewer than 34 homers. Even in 2020, he hit 16 in just 57 games. His power can’t be questioned. He has a very quick bat, and he hits the ball hard. Even at age 30 last year, he was still one of the best in baseball in barrel%, EV, bat speed and hard hit%. His xSLUG has been in the 92% or higher in five of his six full seasons and in the one it was below 92%, it was still high at 82%.
Consider as well that he has had a .340 or higher OBP four of the six years and that he has never had an OPS+ worse than 122, and you have a guy who is just a very productive player.
All of that makes it seem like the contract is a slam dunk, but there are issues. He is on the wrong side of 30, so you just never know when father time creeps up. He was very mediocre, at least by his standards, in 2023 and 2024. He struggled to find a suitor heading into the 2025 season. I already mentioned how slow he is, but he also is dinged a lot for his defense. His range is poor and the arm isn’t good. Of course, I am not sure how much we should care about his arm since he is at first base. His defense is what brings down his WAR value. On the other hand, he also may be the best first baseman in baseball when it comes to scoops. Over the last two years, he has 20 more scoops at first base than the next closest guy. That matters, as that means he is usually saving a bad throw. That doesn’t come across in WAR stats or OAA or anything like that but that doesn’t mean we ignore it either.
Another thing that WAR doesn’t factor in is what he brings to the lineup in terms of that presence in the middle and what he adds to the clubhouse. This gives the Orioles a respected veteran guy that is well liked and commands respect. The clubhouse needs that and new manager Craig Albernaz, surely wants this. You need that presence coming from someone. It also doesn’t hurt that he has playoff experience (and he has been excellent in his 70 postseason PA).
Lastly, you cannot overlook his durability. He has played 97% of the potential games in his career. He is a true 155+ games guy and has shown a remarkable ability to stay healthy. Availability is the best ability, and he is as good as anyone.
I also think we need to see how the roster goes from here. You would think Coby Mayo is traded. I personally believe Mayo is going to be a solid middle-of-the-order bat, but it’s also fair to wonder how much playing time he will get and if it is wise to just keep him in AAA. I certainly wouldn’t trade him just to trade him, but he does start to become the next Kyle Stowers: a player with big upside but who never gets a chance and just sees his value dwindle. You can’t do that with a real asset and Mayo qualifies. He would be the guy I would be looking to move – though only for the right return, of course – unless they want to put him in the outfield in which case they could certainly find at-bats for him, especially against left-handed pitching. However, they’ve had years to give him outfield reps in the minors, and never did, so that seems unlikely at this point.
Mayo & Mountcastle Face Uncertain Futures with Alonso in Town
So, was it an overpay? Sure, you could say that. Does that mean it won’t be worth it? No, not at all.
If he gives the O’s an 800+ OPS, 150+ homers and 500+ RBIs over the next five years and the Orioles have playoff success, the deal will have been worth it even if the dollar-per-wins formula says it’s not.
It has been a busy offseason for the Orioles. They have checked off a lot of boxes. They now must attack pitching and I would still like to see them make a move for an everyday centerfielder, like Brenton Doyle. The offense will be very good but now the focus needs to be on run prevention.
This was a big step to take and the positivity amongst the fan base is important for ticket sales and attendance, which will only lead to more of these moves. Let’s hope they continue to add and bring in the pitching necessary to compete with the rest of the division.
I think we should all feel good about them doing that, especially after this commitment.
