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PERCEPTION IS REALITY: Trade Deadline Decisions Loom

Gausman and Bundy before a Baysox game during national anthem
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Reality: Four years ago today, the Orioles hired Buck Showalter as their manager.

Perception: When the news broke, I tweeted “I like it, but it won’t matter.”

I loved the thought of Showalter coming in to straighten out a terrible Orioles team. But after 14 losing seasons I didn’t think it would make a difference…I am so glad that I was wrong.

In the 57 games he managed the O’s in 2010, they went 34-23. They struggled in 2011, finishing 69-93, but then turned it around. 93-69 in 2012, 85-77 in 2013 and 12 games over .500 so far this season.

In 16 seasons as an MLB manager, Buck has a .517 winning percentage. His 4.5 seasons in Baltimore is the most at any one place in his career. We need to take advantage of – and appreciate – the time that we have with him.

Reality: Baseball’s non-waiver trade deadline is Thursday at 4pm.

Perception: The Orioles will make a trade before then, but will it be the big move that many fans want to see?

The rumors are there… the Orioles have made an offer for Cole Hamels… the O’s have called the Red Sox about Jon Lester.

So will they actually make a move for a front-line starter?

I’m not so sure. In order to get Hamels or Lester (or Price or any #1 SP), the Orioles would have to give up Kevin Gausman or Dylan Bundy, as well as a number of other top prospects.

Jason Stark of ESPN says that it could take two or three players including 1 upper-echelon prospect in order to get Lester from Boston. To me Bundy and two other top prospects might be too much for a two-month rental. But is it a rental?

A lot of people are leery of giving up that much for Lester, who is a free-agent at the end of the season. Lester has already said that, if he gets traded by the Red Sox, he would be interested in re-signing with them after the season. But as Jon Heyman of CBS Sports says, that is “far-fetched.”

The Red Sox insulted Lester with a four-year $70 million offer in spring training. The Sox don’t want to spend any more on Lester, and once he hits the free agent market, he will realize he is worth a whole lot more in another city. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports agrees with that theory. So don’t be so quick to think that trading for Lester is only a two-month rental.

Reality: It will take Dylan Bundy (or Hunter Harvey) plus one or two other top prospects to bring a front-line starting pitcher to Baltimore by Thursday afternoon.

Perception: I just don’t see the Orioles giving up the necessary pieces to bring in a #1 starter… however, the debate on twitter among Orioles fans has been, does it matter what it takes?

The Orioles have their best shot to go to the World Series since 1997. Yes, 2012 was a great and magical season, but this year, the Orioles team is showing they have what it takes. They are getting quality starting pitching when it counts, and their bullpen has been lights out at times. So with the O’s leading the AL East, should the team just “go for it”? Should they mortgage the future to win now?

I’m on the fence. After living through the awful 14 years (1998-2011), I’m enjoying the good times of the last few seasons. I would love for it to continue, but with all the changes coming, will it?

Nelson Cruz, JJ Hardy, and Delmon Young are free agents after this season. Nick Markakis (option available for next season), Matt Wieters, Chris Davis, Darren O’Day, and Steve Pearce could all leave after next year.

That’s a lot of moving parts for an Orioles team that is on the edge of something great. If they won’t spend money in the offseason to re-sign those and other players, then it could be another couple of long seasons. If that’s the case, then trade whatever you can to win now!

But if they plan to do what it takes to stay competitive, then I’m not sure trading away your top prospects is worth it to bring in one pitcher who does not guarantee a title.

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