How O’s Can Make the Most of the Busted Season of 2025

The 2025 Orioles have been a disaster. They are currently 16 games under 500, winning only one out of every three games so far. Everything that could go wrong has gone wrong.

Many preseason predictions that we see floating around are based off simulations. They simulate the season 1000 times and produce a projected win-loss record for each team. Most of these projections had the Orioles winning between 85 and 95 games. Even the low end of wasn’t producing anywhere near what we’ve seen transpire.

Even if you felt the Orioles pitching rotation would cause them to fall short of being a true contender, no one expected them to struggle to be even a .500 team. What we are witnessing is truly baffling.

Injuries

The injuries have been devastating. Yes, I am aware all teams deal with injuries, but the O’s have had some of their most important and best players all hurt at the same time. They basically haven’t had Colton Cowser (two games), Andrew Kittredge (one game, earlier this week) or Grayson Rodriguez (zero pitches thrown) all year. They have not had a healthy Jordan Westburg for 90% of the season. Gunnar Henderson “only” missed a week but was basically going through his spring training in April. Zach Eflin missed a month.

These are players that were of the utmost importance for this season, and they’ve barely been on the field. As frustrated with this team as I am, simply due to the fact they haven’t fielded the team they were supposed to have, I am personally only so upset about it.

Bad Luck

Then you have the “bad luck.” I get that folks are tired of hearing that term thrown around as an “excuse,” but it doesn’t mean it’s not true.

The Orioles’ team batting average is .232, while their xBA is .250. That differential is one of the worst in the league (i.e., they are one of the most unlucky).

Their xSLG is about 40 points higher than their actual slugging percentage. Only five teams have a worse differential.

Some fans have said they need to adjust their hitting approach, but do they really?

They’re currently fourth in the majors in average exit velocity, fourth in hard hit percentage, ninth in barrel rate, and fifth in average bat speed.  They are top five in pitches seen per plate appearance.

So, they are seeing a lot of pitches, then hitting baseballs hard. Yet, they’ve very little to show for it. The teams that are ahead of or right there with the O’s in these stats are some of the best offenses in baseball and yet, the O’s are struggling.

For me, talking about bad luck isn’t an excuse; it is just a fact.

The Actual Bad

Of course, it’s not all good. The O’s are striking out the third most in all of baseball.  Only three teams walk less. That lack of walks, to me, is the biggest issue with this team, and something that needs to be addressed.

And obviously, the pitching is awful. Tomoyuki Sugano, who, as opposed to the hitters, has some peripherals that say he is getting lucky (although a lot of that came earlier in the season) has been excellent, but is one of the only bright spots.  The Charlie Morton experiment was a disaster. Kyle Gibson, only brought in for depth purposes late in spring training then forced into action, was even worse.  The bullpen, which started off well, has been awful in May and has cost the team multiple games.

Changes Begin

The Orioles made their first major move to address these concerns when they let go longtime manager Brandon Hyde last week.  Many fans wanted to blame Hyde for a lot of this, and I don’t think that’s fair. I am not saying he was some great strategic manager; however, his style didn’t differ from most managers.

Most managers care about platoon matchups. Most managers nowadays don’t let starters go long enough.  But more than that, most managers in 2025 don’t have much power, and Hyde was no different. Even if he had final say as far as lineups, he was obviously encouraged to do things a certain way because of what the computers were telling Mike Elias and Sig Mejdal, who would relay that information to Hyde.

I just think the fan base places too much importance on the manager. Today’s MLB manager is probably the least important of all managers/head coaches amongst the main pro sports. All of the information out there has taken power and gut decisions away from them. Their important work is what is done behind the scenes.

Fire Elias?

Elias is now the punching bag and many in Birdland want him gone.

Of all the ridiculous, uneducated discussions I have seen this year, the “fire Elias” talk takes the cake.

Now, don’t get me wrong: there is certainly stuff he has screwed up.  I have been lamenting his post-round 2 draft strategy (i.e., no high schoolers, mainly taking college outfielders, etc..) for years. I do not feel he has done a good job building bullpens, even though the ‘pen has had good raw numbers the last few years (I feel we have had too many pitch-to-contact pitchers, which hurts you in the biggest spots). I didn’t like the Morton signing. And most of all, I do not like how he has handled several of the young players, with Coby Mayo being at the top of the list.

That being said, when Elias came to this organization, it was still in the stone age and was a complete disaster.  He has brought a ton of credibility and has modernized it. In the offseason, there was a poll done by The Athletic about the best front offices in pro sports.  The Orioles were in the top 20 amongst all the four major pro sports teams. He gave us an international presence, which didn’t exist prior. He has brought up to date technology to the organization.  We have seen players come here and say they have been given so much information, and they have learned things no organization had ever taught them.

Most of all, he has brought in a ton of talent and a lot of winning the last three seasons. Yes, he has made some mistakes these last 8-10 months and yes, there has been some regression from some of the star players that makes it fair to question what he is doing. But overall, you can’t let a few bad decisions overrule seven years of progress.

No, But the GM Must Adjust

Now, where I agree with the angry fans is that he has to adjust. He must tweak his draft strategy and not ignore pitching for the first several rounds. He has to be willing to give out two-to-four-year free agent deals (I am fine with him not giving out the five-plus year, nine-figure deals. People continue to forget that these deals almost always fail yet they crave them because it makes them feel good that ownership is spending.) He prioritizes excess value, and while he isn’t afraid of one-year deals that are perhaps overpays (See Morton and Gary Sanchez), he needs to adjust his thinking on some of the longer term deals and potential extensions for existing talent.

If Elias fails to do that over the next calendar year, I am fine with having the conversation of getting rid of him. However, he deserves a chance to make those adjustments, fix the wrongs, and see if he can get this team back to its previous trajectory.

I am of the utmost belief, whether this team wins 55 or 85 games this year, that they can contend in 2026. I do not believe they can make the playoffs (FanGraphs has them at a 2.2% chance, which is maybe on the high side) this season, but I do think they can next year.

Salvaging 2025

For me, this season still has a ton of intrigue in it and there are a lot of things that could happen that could end up being big positives long term.

One of those things is the trade deadline. Who will they try to move?

Their top trade chip is Cedric Mullins, and Elias should be shopping him right now. While you don’t usually see trades completed this early, it does happen (see Luis Arraez last year) and Mullins is a guy who has had big starts in the past and then tailed off, whether it be due to injury or just poor play. The Dodgers and Phillies are amongst the contenders who have gotten poor production from their CF spot this year. Cedric is not in your long-term plans, so there is no reason to keep him.

If he is pitching well, I would rather keep Kittredge and pick up his option, but if someone blows you away with an offer, you consider that. I would shop both Ryan O’Hearn and Ryan Mountcastle, as well as Ramon Urias. I would also look to move anyone else in the pen not named Felix Bautista. I am hoping Yennier Cano starts pitching well again leading up to the deadline.  He has a lot of team control but I do not feel he is trustworthy in high leverage situations.

Zach Eflin is my big question mark. My preference would be to extend him. He can get you something decent in a trade, but he is still just a rental, so the return will only be so much.  I would try to extend him for three years and if he isn’t interested, then you look to trade him.

Other than that, I am not trading any of the long-term guys. What I want to see is Mayo (provided he isn’t traded for a long-term pitching option) and likely (barring injury) Samuel Basallo up here playing everyday. I know some will say “don’t start the clock” on Basallo, but I don’t agree.  These guys need time to learn and adjust to MLB pitching and since I think we can win next year, I want him out there now to get his feet wet.  I would have Chayce McDermott up here, pitching out of the pen. And we will see on MiLB pitchers like Braxton Bragg and Nestor German.  If they continue to go through the minors as they have, I would take a look at them late in the season.

A lineup of Jackson Holliday, Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Heston Kjerstad (he may not have looked great so far but keep in mind that he has about 250 MLB at bats over three seasons; he needs time), Basallo, Mayo and Cowser is very exciting to me.

The season doesn’t have to be lost. A lot of good can still come from it and one bad year in the midst of all of this doesn’t mean the window is closed. Star players have bad seasons all the time and then bounce back. The Orioles can do the same thing. There is too much talent and resources to think it can’t happen.

Elias has to adjust and the players need some accountability and they need to look at how they are doing things coaching wise, etc.. But you can figure these things out and get back to where you were.

Commit to the youth and give them real playing time. Make a few smart trades and signings. You have six picks in the top 100 of this draft. There are a lot of chances to bring in a lot more talent to this organization and there is opportunity to commit to the talent you have.

This season may be over in terms of making the playoffs, but that doesn’t mean it has to be a lost season or one from which nothing good comes.

Make the right decisions, play the right players, learn from your mistakes, and move on.