Is Too Much Depth Really “A Good Problem to Have?”

The Orioles are off to a solid 4-2 start, but there is still a lot of angst among the fans. The reason for it is that the O’s are supposed to be in Win Now mode, yet they are not fielding the most talented team they can. This was really pushed to the forefront yesterday when we saw the O’s bats struggle again but eventually pull off a walk off win over the Royals. Meanwhile, the Norfolk Tides literally get front page ESPN coverage because they scored 26 runs and their big five prospects went off at a level rarely seen in one game.

So, why aren’t the O’s fielding the most talented team they possibly can? And when will that change?

Those are both complicated questions. They have answers, and many won’t like them. Inconvenient truths, if you will.

First things first: the level of talent and depth on the major league roster as currently constructed. During the offseason, I stated many times that I wanted to see one of Ramon Urias or Jorge Mateo traded. The same went for one of Austin Hays, Anthony Santander or Ryan Mountcastle.. Mike Elias either couldn’t find the right deal or simply elected not to trade any of those players, opting instead for the depth they provide.

That brings me to this question: is too much depth a bad thing?

We hear the saying “it’s a good problem to have,” quite often. But is it really?

Currently, the O’s have five prospects in AAA who are ready to be in the majors: Jackson Holliday, Coby Mayo, Heston Kjerstad, Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers. Most fan complaints are generally pointed, understandably, at Holliday, especially since guys like Urias, Mateo and Tony Kemp are clearly inferior talents. Urias has been a very solid contributor for the O’s and shouldn’t be looked at the same as Kemp. Mateo brings unique qualities with his incredible speed, but is still clearly inferior to Holliday all-around.

This isn’t just a Holliday issue though. Colton Cowser was the one prospect to break through to the Opening Day roster, and we’re seeing him struggle to get playing time early. Ryan O’Hearn is also here, blocking Kjerstad pretty much one-to-one.

Ultimately, the biggest issue is that the O’s treat the veteran guys like they are everyday talents, and they just aren’t. This problem certainly isn’t unique to the Orioles. It’s just a reality amongst the large majority of players in baseball, but it doesn’t stop teams from giving them 550+ at bats.

In my ideal scenario, Hays and O’Hearn would see a lot less playing time, and Cedric Mullins’ (really, the team’s only natural centerfielder) would decrease as well unless his bat gets going. Anthony Santander and Mounty would still play a ton but maybe more like 500-550 at bats as opposed to over 600. These “plans” are always subject to change as guys get hot or someone is having a career year (I think Mounty is in for one this year) but that’s the general thought process for now. This would allow for some of the young players to be up here and play. They may not play every day but most of them could play 2-4 times a week and that would be worth it. To me, this would be the best way to use the roster and get the kids up here.

This goes back to the depth question. Is it better to have established players with limited ceilings blocking young players with more upside but also more volatility because of their inexperience? Top prospects fail all the time and if you get rid of your depth and those guys struggle, then what?

So, you can see why Elias elected to eliminate some risk and kept all his veteran bats around.

But how much is too much in terms of the young, inexperienced bats? You can argue that the best positional talent for this team to field would be Adley Rutschman, James McCann, Jordan Westburg, Gunnar Henderson, Mounty, Santander, Mullins, Mayo, Cowser, Stowers, Kjerstad, Norby and Holliday. That roster, though would mean the team loses a lot of experience and proven production. It’s a great deal of inexperience all at once, even if the upside is far greater.

This is the balance Elias has to find. For me, I don’t believe he’s found it yet. I think he should have traded some of the vets, as I mentioned earlier.

Besides too much inexperience, you also have to ask what other factors exist in keeping the kids down. I have seen people say that Elias values money too much – meaning that he doesn’t want to spend it. Well, there is probably some truth to that, but most fans don’t think about it like Elias does, and thus misinterpret many aspects of his potential (i.e., we don’t know) thoughts on payroll.

Personally, I think he’s generally right about how and how much a team should spend. Signing free agents to long-term nine-figure deals is just stupid business. I wouldn’t expect that to happen in Baltimore as long as Elias is here and I hope it doesn’t happen with any other GM.

Now, signing your own to nine-figure deals? That’s different.

If all Elias cared about was keeping payroll down, he would be playing the cheaper guys and would have jettisoned the vets making more money.

What I do think he values, besides the depth already discussed, is the service time. Especially for someone like Holliday.

I wrote about this in the offseason but the extra year for Holliday means a lot. If you avoid Super 2 status (this is where money does come in), they will save $20-30M. By bringing Jackson up after the usual Super 2 part of the calendar, it likely means he won’t get enough at bats to get serious Rookie of the Year consideration, ensuring the O’s the extra year. They lost out on this with Rutschman because he finished second in voting.

Now, personally, I would sign Holliday to an extension and not worry about any of this.

I think there could be service time stuff with Coby Mayo as well, but to a lesser extent than Holliday.  All of these guys have a defensive question. Where do they fit? Can they be trusted with the glove? Again, the established vets are known commodities. You can argue how good Hays, for example, is defensively, but the O’s believe he is good out there and until he shows otherwise, they will stick with him.

Finally, there’s the problem of what exactly to do with those veterans. What if Elias tried to trade them and the value wasn’t there? Do you just DFA them? Do you let established MLB talent go for nothing?

While fans clamor for promotions, they rarely describe at whose expense the promotion will come. Sure, cutting Tony Kemp is easy, but who else are you DFA’ing today that you are fine to lose for nothing?

Other candidates are Mateo, Urias and O’Hearn. If they are DFA’d and no trades are worked out, are fans OK with losing them for nothing if they refuse the assignment to AAA?

Since this is the route the Orioles chose to take (and who can blame them, as it did work last year), there are only so many easy moves to make and unless there are injuries, none of these answers can be found easily. I would suspect that we have, at least, all of April before any promotions of consequence.

That gives the vets at least a month to start showing something. If it doesn’t happen, then maybe we start to see changes.

Until then, let’s hope for health, production and improvement from everyone, and that the O’s can keep winning games.

As long as they win, these questions will remain muted. But if they start to skid, it’s going to get ugly in Birdland.