This piece has been a long time coming. It’s taken me a while to be able to reflect on how I feel about the 2024 Orioles. They are such a weird team to think about because it all depends on what kind of person you are. This team is a test of the glass half-empty/half-full theory because the good things they do are often balanced out by many negatives, and vice versa. For example, if you are an optimist, you see that despite the massive amount of injuries, the Orioles were still in the AL East race until late September and are going to the playoffs with a home-field advantage. On the flip side, a pessimist would point out that, if this team didn’t play so awfully from the All-Star Break until late September, they would have easily clinched the Division much sooner, and they wouldn’t have had to worry about a Wild Card.
We have a lot to talk about with these 2024 Orioles because they are a unique team. A team that seemed like it was destined for much more just couldn’t get out of its own way for reasons either out of its control or for reasons it inflicted on itself in the regular season.
Could this team be built more for the postseason? There is only one way to find out.
Before we get into that, as crazy as this seems, there was a time when the vibes and hype for this team couldn’t have been higher.
Think back to February – not usually when baseball teams are at their highest, but this team is unique if nothing else. Days after news broke about a new ownership transfer, we got news of Corbin Burnes coming to Baltimore. Burnes was the prize we all wanted, a true number-one Ace-level pitcher to go with our already good young staff. Burnes, Kyle Bradish, and Grayson Rodriguez, combined with a healthy John Means and a solid Dean Kremer, got everyone dreaming.
That dream, however, was interrupted when reality slapped us in the face as soon as Spring Training began. Bradish had a UCL tear, and Means was still not ready to pitch. Perhaps this was a bad omen, and things would not go the Orioles’ way. However, these players weren’t lost forever, and there was hope they would heal up and contribute in 2024. The team seemed confident that Bradish and Means would return sometime in the season.
Then came Opening Day, which was quickly the best in terms of vibes. Burnes was dominant, the offense on fire, and it seemed like an opening to something greater. This team just felt different with the way they played. They had an offense obsessed with hitting home runs and a starting rotation that helped calm everything down. But even in April, something just felt a little off. While the offense could have big games with five or more runs, they seemed slump-prone. The big issue was the over-reliance on the long ball. This team wasn’t hitting in critical situations and producing runs constantly. Another big issue was the bullpen, but mainly new closer Craig Kimbrel. He wasn’t good enough early on and was even passed over multiple times in April during a crucial Yankees series at home. The team still ended April with 19 wins, in a three-way tie for the second-best record in the league and the best in the AL. Only the Phillies had more notches in the win column than the Orioles. May was mostly the same, but we got Means and Bradish back, which was glorious. Bradish looked like he didn’t miss a beat, and Means was also solid. However, this was the month the Orioles lost their sweepless streak that had dated back to 2022, which showed us that this team was different than the ’23 version. It was still a productive month, even if the offense was inconsistent and the bullpen could make any game close.
June was the month that everyone wanted to talk about. It looked like a brutal schedule on paper, so how would the Orioles handle it? For the first half, they handled it with ease. They won a series over Tampa to begin the month and split with the Jays in Toronto. Then came the run that proved this team had true World Series potential. A sweep of the Rays at the Trop, a series victory over the Braves at home, another over one of the best teams in baseball, Philadelphia, and finally, a series victory over the Yankees in the Bronx capped off with a 17-5 win. While the Yankees had a better record, the O’s were only a half-game out and were the hottest team on the planet.
So the question is, what happened? Well, during that Yankees series, we found out that Means, Bradish, and Tyler Wells all had to undergo Tommy John Surgery. We lost most of our rotation to injuries, but that is not all. I picked this time to stop talking about how great the Orioles are because everything changed after that Yankees series. They got swept in Houston and didn’t play well in July. Trying to watch the Orioles from this point on was a chore. It was so frustrating watching them drop winnable games due to several issues.
That very pedestrian start to July could have been much worse had the Yankees not handed the Birds that last game of the first half with some of the worst mental mistakes I have ever seen. After all, that, it was still a successful first half. The team sent five players to the All-Star game, including three starters. They came out of the break hot, taking two of three in Texas from the Rangers. Then they returned to their losing ways, dropping two of three from the stinky Marlins in Miami, then to the Padres at home.
It was time for a shake-up, and Mike Elias did just that, trading Austin Hays to the Phillies for new closer, Seranthony Dominguez, and stealing Zach Eflin from the Rays. Then the trade deadline came, and it was a doozy. The moves Elias made had a range of outcomes, ranging from bad to harmless, because they cost nothing (Eloy Jimenez, Gregory Soto, and Austin Slater). If you remove those first three appearances, Soto has been pretty good, and will be key in October. The others…eh.
His final move was the Trevor Rodgers trade, which hurts because they gave up quality prospects in Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers for a guy who spent the stretch run in AAA Norfolk, and remains not much more than a project.
If you thought the injury bug had enough of biting the Orioles, brother, you need to sit down. Over the next couple of weeks, the team would lose All-Star Jordan Westburg, Rodriguez, Ryan Mountcastle, Jorge Mateo, and Ramon Urias for extended periods. During this time, the Orioles would have to call on prospects, and players needed to be up to the task. This resulted in a deep, prolonged slump offensively that they never really got out of. They could still hit the occasional home run, but seeing all the strikeouts and runners left on base was demoralizing to the fan base. This would continue until they got Westburg and Urias back late in September when they did go on a little run that led them to clinching the playoffs and home-field advantage in the Wild Card series.
So here is the question: why? Why were the 2024 Orioles an overall disappointment? No matter how you look at it, this (regular) season was disappointing. You can’t go from winning 100-plus games and adding an ace-level pitcher, to winning 10 fewer games, and not call the year disappointing.
Let’s look at this season from a couple of different angles. This is to show that not all issues are black and white, and there isn’t an easy answer in a season like this one.
First, the main thing that was out of the O’s control were the injuries. Remember that dream rotation? Everyone except Burnes would have their season cut short or spend time on the injured list. Add the built-in injury to Felix Bautista and other injuries such as Wells and Zach Eflin, and you have a disaster. It wasn’t just the pitching affected, either. Throughout the season, I downplayed the losses of Westburg and Urias. These two are key role players with this team, and losing them hurt the offense that already had problems. The Mountcastle injury also revealed cracks in the armor.
So that’s it then, case closed? Injuries severely affected the 2024 Orioles, so that is the answer?
Well, not entirely.
Remember what I said about the offense being inconsistent early on? This team had some issues scoring consistently and often. The biggest factor in this was how bad they were with runners in scoring position. Watching the O’s try to hit with runners on reminded me of my Little League days because they were inept. So many games were wasted because of how bad they were at hitting with RISP. Keep in mind this was a problem before the injuries as well. They were too reliant on the home run ball all year, and when it came time to play small ball, they couldn’t do it most of the time. There were exceptions, of course, but these issues rose to the top when the injuries hit in the second half.
Alright, so that has to be it, right? The injuries played a part, but the offense was too reliant on the home run and unable to get timely hits.
Well, there is one more aspect that I feel is controllable, unlike injuries, but not by the players themselves.
I have had many issues with Brandon Hyde this year. I think his game feel is off, and when we are already dealing with these issues, he doesn’t make it easier for himself some nights. The hitting coaches and their philosophy is a big issue. This year, I believe a change was made to go away from line drives to hard-hit fly balls. Nowhere has this been more obvious than with Adley Rustchman and Jackson Holliday. These guys were not fly ball hitters; they were line-drive hitters. Yet this year, you saw the change in these two (for Holliday, after having watched him in the minors a good bit).
(I didn’t know where to put this, but I also believe that Adley was dealing with an injury this year that zapped his power.)
Another big problem was that other players didn’t step up when called upon.
Let’s look at this from the simplest angle possible. The Orioles never replaced Felix. Yes, Kimbrel had his moments, and Seranthony is fine, but they don’t have a lockdown closer. They never replaced Mateo’s speed or got a good-hitting righty outfielder to replace Hays.
Let’s also factor in the injuries. Holliday was called up to help spell some of these issues and then got thrown into a full-time role when Westburg went down. They had to rely on Eloy Jimenez and Emanuel Rivera, whom the White Sox and the Marlins, two of the worst teams in baseball, didn’t want, to replace Mountcastle and Urias. The team never replaced Grayson, as projects like Rodgers blew up in their face.
So, from the top, let’s go over this. What replaced…
Bautista: Kimbrel, who got released, and an OK closer in Dominguez.
Mateo’s Speed: technically Holliday, maybe Slater? We’ll see who they use to pinch run in the playoffs.
Hays/Right-handed Outfielder: Slater, who hit .250/.342/.344, (686 OPS).
Westburg: Holliday and his .173/.230/.292 line with sometimes questionable defense that did cost the Orioles games down the stretch
Urias: Rivera. Not bad! .276/.333/.448 – decent numbers but not a hot Ramon Urias’s impact on the team. Oh, and Coby Mayo (.196/.098/.293).
Mountcastle: Jimenez (.232/.270/.316), and it also flung O’Hearn into a full-time role, which he wasn’t ready for and mightily struggled with.
A team already struggling offensively started to press, which was ugly. Other players, like Colton Cowser, Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander, and a hobbled Adley, just couldn’t pick up the slack.
During this reflection, I looked back at the 2023 Orioles to see where the difference was. To me, that that team was a village, and everyone helped. They could go through slumps but worked together to mount some fantastic comebacks. The 2024 version didn’t have that. The injuries and lack of production from guys like O’Hearn and Adley put too much pressure on a young, injured pitching staff and an overworked, undermanned bullpen.
The causes go like this: injuries to the rotation and big offensive contributors caused the baked-in issues with the coaching/philosophy to boil to the top, and the replacement players, who were mainly bench/platoon players and young rookies, couldn’t step up, causing the already struggling offense to fall over and die.
That’s the story of the regular season.
So the question is, what now?
Well, that is up to them. Tuesday is the first Wild Card game, and it is at home. The O’s dodged the red-hot Tigers and likely Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, but will see another devastating lefty in Kansas City’s Cole Ragans.
If last year showed us anything, it’s that team record means nothing in October. It is all about who is hot and who is not. The O’s have to get hot. They just swept the free-falling Twins, so everyone should be feeling good. These last couple of games with these players returning have ignited the offense, as they have scored a lot more runs and are hitting pretty well situationally. This is also a more battle-tested group than last year’s team. All the adversity we just talked about builds character. The ’23 team coasted, then couldn’t respond when the cleat of reality struck them in October. Will this one be any different?
The ingredients are all there to make a long playoff run. They just have to perform.
It wasn’t the regular season the fans, the players, the coaches, or anyone wanted. But that’s all behind everyone now.
If they make a nice run to the World Series – or even the ALCS – no one will remember that lousy second half. If they don’t – if they can’t get past the Royals, or – heaven forbid – even win their first playoff game since 2014, then the laundry list we reviewed over the first 80% of this article will be all anyone remembers about the 2024 Orioles.
So, Orioles, what are you going to do about it?
Let your regular season struggles define you even more?
Or rise above them and make something grand?
How about a nice little October run, eh?
