Machado’s Injuries Put Orioles in a Bind

In August of 2012 when Buck Showalter needed to fill a defensive void at 3^rd base he made a call to Bowie and summoned his barely 20-year-old shortstop Manny Machado.

Machado stepped in and played a gold glove caliber 3^rd base despite having only played two games at the position prior to being added to the major league roster. At the plate, he put up a stat line that if projected out over 162 games would have put him in the same category as the top offensive shortstops in the majors.

With a gold glove winner already entrenched as the everyday shortstop in JJ Hardy, a move putting Manny back in his natural position was most likely a couple years away. In the meantime, he would get regular at bats as the O’s everyday 3^rd baseman and continue to work on developing offensively.

In 2013 Machado proved that his success as a rookie was not a fluke by batting .283 with 14 HR, 71 RBI, scoring 88 runs, leading the AL in doubles, winning both gold & platinum glove awards and having one of the best defensive seasons by a 3^rd baseman in major league history.

In 2014 Machado continued to progress at the plate as he batted .278 with 12 HR, and 32 RBI in 327 at bats. The most notable difference between his 2013 & 2014 numbers was his increase in power. He went from hitting a home run every 47.5 at bats in 2013 to hitting a home run every 29.5 at bats in 2014. That is a big jump in power and certainly very encouraging for such a young player.

At just 22 years old, I would not be surprised to eventually see more of Machado’s doubles leave the yard and him develop into a 30 HR-type of hitter who bats around .285. Those numbers would make him one of the best hitting shortstops in the game.

Despite the fact that Machado is perhaps the best defensive 3^rd baseman in the league, his greatest long term value to the Orioles is at shortstop. I feel his athleticism, arm strength and baseball IQ are not being fully utilized at 3^rd base. He was drafted as a shortstop and he has done nothing to give me any reason to believe that he can’t play the position and play it well.

In Hardy, the Orioles have one of the best defensive shortstops in the game who can also produce offensively. I just can’t help but wonder how much longer he can continue to produce at that level. He will be 33 years old at season’s end, is coming off a year where his power basically disappeared and he had multiple trips to the DL due to back issues. Those are not good signs for a 32-year-old shortstop.

Going into the 2014 season, I viewed Hardy as the most expandable of the upcoming free agents that the organization had to make a decision on in 2014 & 2015. I felt it was time to move Manny to shortstop and let Hardy walk in free agency. The Orioles would have been better served by using the money it was going to cost to keep Hardy to lock up a younger player like Matt Wieters or Chris Davis.

Everything changed on 8/11/2014 when Machado went down with his second major knee injury in as many years, both of which required surgery. It was clear at that point that Machado had underlying issues with his knees. Apparently he has a predisposed condition that affects the alignment of his kneecap (patella) and creates instability which caused his injuries.

What does that mean for Machado moving forward? I don’t know and I don’t think anyone knows with any real level of certainty. Did the surgery permanently remedy the issue? Maybe and maybe not. Are there preventive measures that can be taken to eliminate a reoccurrence? Maybe and maybe not. People can speculate but nobody knows for sure.

In my opinion, the uncertainty with Machado’s knee(s) put the Orioles in a very difficult position. I am not convinced that they would have signed Hardy at the age of 32 to a three-year $40 million dollar contract extension if they were confident that Manny’s knees were not going to be an issue moving forward.

If I was confident in Machado physically, I certainly would not have paid a 32-year-old shortstop that is already showing signs of breaking down that kind of money and made a three-year commitment. I already have his heir apparent on the roster and under team control through 2018 and I have to try and sign Wieters & Davis after the season. I’d much rather take the risk of parting ways a year too early than take the risk of holding on three years too long.

The ramification of Machado’s injury has the potential to run much deeper than it appears on the surface. Ultimately it could potentially end up costing the O’s Wieters and/or Davis. It may have already cost us a free agent that we would have signed this winter if we hadn’t re-signed Hardy. It may mean that Machado will never play a game at shortstop.

At this point it is hard to say exactly what we paid for Hardy. Only time will tell.

As O’s fans, we can only hope that our young phenom’s legs are permanently fixed, and that he’ll blossom into the superstar he’s shown flashes of being.