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Looking North for Another Potential Blockbuster

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The trade deadline is rapidly approaching, and the blockbuster deal I was advocating for seems less and less likely to happen as the Rays continue to win baseball games. However, another team has emerged as a big time seller – the Philadelphia Phillies, who have just put their ace, Cole Hamels out on the market. Just like the Rays, they can also offer the Orioles an upgrade at second base in Chase Utley.

Unlike the Rays’ targets however, Hamels and Utley are pricey, contract-wise.The Phillies’ lefty is owed $90 million for the next four years plus has a reachable $24 million vesting option for 2019, while Utley is owed $10 million next season plus $5 million more if he can stay off the DL. He also has three vesting options that cover 2016-2018 at $15 million each based on getting 500 plate appearances in each season before. This package will also command a good chunk of prospects from the Orioles’ farm system.

Let’s assume though for this article that Peter Angelos agrees to take on the salary. Here’s what we would be getting:

Hamels would fill the ace slot for Baltimore without a doubt as he’s pitched 200 innings for four straight seasons, averaging 6.82 innings per start and 24 quality starts (QS) over his last three years. Even with the Orioles’ recent run of quality starting pitching, they still only rank 13th in the American League with 46 QS and are only averaging 5.81 innings per start from their rotation so they definitely can use the upgrade that Hamels would provide.

Besides what he can bring during the regular season, Hamels has postseason and World Series experience as well as he was the Series’ MVP in 2008 and his playoff record stands at 7-4 with a 3.04 ERA.

Chase Utley also has that postseason experience, and he’d be the veteran presence with a solid plate approach in the lineup that the Orioles have sorely been missing at second base this season. Despite a lower OPS than his norm, Utley is walking at a 7.7% rate this season with a .343 wOBA and seeing 3.83 pitches per plate appearance. In comparison, Jonathan Schoop is walking at a 2.5% rate with a .260 wOBA and only seeing 3.53 pitches per plate appearance. There’s no question, that even in his declining years, Utley is still a major upgrade over Schoop with plate approach and discipline.

Defensively, as well as Schoop has played this season (8.0 UZR/150), Utley has still been better (10.5 UZR/150) so there’s even a slight upgrade there.

Utley’s career postseason line is .262/402/.500/.902 in 202 PAs with a 1.183 OPS in the World Series including seven HRs in 11 games. Schoop has never been to the postseason as we all know and the last time the Orioles played a rookie in the postseason in 2012 it didn’t turn out so well. Manny Machado hit only .122 during the ALDS with a .597 OPS and I would expect Schoop to have similar – if not worse – numbers. The stakes are too high for that to happen again.

So what will this cost the Orioles besides money?

I think you put the same package out there that you would for Price and Zobrist but because of Hamels’ and Utley’s contracts, you only give them Dylan Bundy instead of a choice between him and Kevin Gausman, with Harvey also being off the table. I also would hold back Christian Walker and replace him with Dariel Alvarez – who is heating up – and I’d give them Tim Berry as well.

The deal would be Bundy, ERod, Schoop, Alvarez and Berry for Hamels and Utley with $10 million in return. I think that’s a fair trade that gives the Phillies some nice parts to work with, including the three good prospects they wanted for Hamels, in exchange for some major salary relief. The Orioles get their ace and veteran second baseman and knock a few million off of Hamels’ deal over the next few seasons or get Utley for only his $5 million “knee health bonus” in 2015 if you want to look at it that way.

Just like the Price/Zobrist deal, a lot has to go right however for something like this to work as Peter Angelos is still likely gun shy from the Ubaldo Jimenez deal. Dan Duquette asking him to take on Hamels’ contract seems like a daunting task – but the prospects of a World Series in Baltimore and the revenue that could come from that would hopefully be enough to entice him to authorize the expense. Ruben Amaro also has to be willing to sell Hamels at a fair price and needs to realize that he needs the salary relief and prospects more than he needs Hamels and Utley at this point in their careers.

Still, the Orioles need to be pursuing something like this and at least make the attempt because as of last night, their lead shrank to only 2.5 games over the Jays and they don’t have the pitching to match up with the other AL division leaders, Oakland and Detroit, in the playoffs even if they can hold on to the AL East.

There’s a lot at stake and bold moves need to be made even though the cost and risk may be high, but having the chance to ending the 30-year (and counting) World Series drought is worth it.

Let’s make a blockbuster deal.

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