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Time for the O’s to Make a Blockbuster Trade

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Well here we are. It’s almost time for the All-Star break and the Orioles sit in first place of the American League East. Honestly I don’t think many expected this to be the case. I know I didn’t, but the American League East is no longer the monster division it once was, and as a result the Orioles do have a great chance at walking away with the division crown.

However, the fact remains that the season is a long way from being over and the Orioles could also easily find themselves on the outside looking in at the playoffs as well unless they make some moves to bolster their roster.

Where are the areas where they need the most help? The answer is the starting rotation and second base.

Now there are a lot of starting pitchers out there that will be available that could make a major impact. For example, if the Orioles are looking for a long-term option, Cole Hamels from the Phillies is available, as is Cliff Lee – but both are owed over 20 million dollars per season for multiple years and Hamels has the Orioles on his no-trade list. I also don’t see Peter Angelos paying the salary for either.

There is a fit however, for one particular difference-making pitcher, and that is David Price of the Tampa Bay Rays. While Price is not necessarily a long-term option as he’s a likely going to become a free agent after the 2015 season, he’s what they need to win now and the Rays are willing to trade him within the division. Considering he’s under team control, his remaining salary for 2014, and likely arbitration figure for 2015 create a much more palatable situation for Dan Duquette to present to Peter Angelos.

Imagine Price at the top of the Orioles’ rotation followed by Tillman, Gonzalez/Chen, Jimenez and Gausman. With Nelson Cruz, Adam Jones and Steve Pearce in the offense and Chris Davis, J.J. Hardy and Manny Machado starting to come around, the Orioles could have a real nice setup for winning the division and having a deep playoff run.

But why stop at Price when you still could use some help at second base? We all love Jonathan Schoop’s potential there, but the fact remains that he’s only hitting .223 with a .592 OPS. Even if you put him at the number 9 slot in the lineup, he still hurts you at the plate and you need every run you can get down the stretch and especially in the playoffs.

We saw how Machado, although having a spectacular September in 2012, hurt the team with his lack of offense in the playoffs, with the team losing the ALDS to the more experienced Yankees. I wonder how the team would have done had they traded for Chase Headley and played him at third base instead. Headley happened to be on a major hot streak and had a career year and was just as good defensively as Machado. Sure he might have dropped off for the Orioles like he’s done for the Padres, but he might have been just enough to get the Orioles past the Yankees and Tigers to the World Series in 2012.

That’s why this deal becomes a blockbuster because not only would the Orioles trade for David Price, they’d also not make the same mistake twice and acquire Ben Zobrist to play second base.

Zobrist is such a perfect fit for what this team wants to do. He’s got an excellent plate approach, can play multiple positions, and even in a “down” season for him offensively, he’s still been excellent defensively at second base (+7.7 UZR/150) and has been worth 2.7 fWAR overall. Like Price, Zobrist is also likely to become a free agent after the 2015 season, but at 33 years old this season, he’s not a player you would likely want to invest in long-term either.

Now the important part – what will this cost the Orioles realistically? And realistically is the key word. I’ve seen proposals for Price from Orioles’ fans talking about trading Mike Wright and Eduardo Rodriguez. Folks, that won’t even come close to getting it done. The fact is that it’s going to be expensive in terms of players. A lot of young talent will need to be traded in return, but you’ve got to trade talent to get talent, especially dealing with a division rival.

To pull off this deal, the Orioles are going to have to trade one of Dylan Bundy or Kevin Gausman and while I’d trade either for Price, I’d much rather deal Bundy, as Gausman can be part of a playoff rotation or bullpen. Bundy isn’t going to be ready to contribute until 2015 at the earliest.

The second piece to the deal would be Jonathan Schoop. I know fans would hate losing Schoop, but we are talking about David Price, and Zobrist, even in his declining years is a far superior player to Schoop at present anyway.

The third and fourth pieces to the deal would be ERod and Christian Walker. ERod has struggled a bit in AA this year but is still only 21 so there’s time for him to straighten out, but he’s a long shot to make an impact in the next two years. As for Walker, he’s been on fire this season in AA, but again it takes talent to acquire talent, and the Orioles still do have Chris Davis at first base for the rest of 2014 and 2015 as well. Walker may also take a while to adjust once called up as many rookies do, so again he’s not a great option for a team that needs to win in the next two years.

Some may call a trade like this “mortgaging the future,” but the Orioles would still have one of Gausman or Bundy and Hunter Harvey as well as other good prospects. Fans also have to realistically look at what the Orioles have beyond 2015. It’s not really clear. Here’s what we know or don’t know for spots for sure:

Lineup

1B Walker?

2B Schoop

3B Machado/?

SS Machado/?

RF ?

CF Jones

LF ?

C ?

DH ?

 

Rotation:

Chris Tillman

Ubaldo Jimenez

Gausman?

Miguel Gonzalez?

?

 

The rotation is more settled than the lineup, but there’s certainly not enough known to even know if the Orioles will have a competitive team to surround the players they have the long-term commitments to now. They’ve got talent in the minors, but will it translate to the majors? We just don’t know. That’s why it is time to go for it now because with Zobrist this what the Orioles could have for a lineup for the rest of 2014:

RF Markakis

2B Zobrist

CF Jones

DH Cruz

1B Davis

SS Hardy

LF Pearce

3B Machado

C Joseph/Hundley

That to me looks better than that 2016 and beyond lineup and better than the lineup the Orioles are currently featuring. We know the talent potential and likely performance of that group of players.

Even if you lose Cruz, Markakis and Hardy in the offseason, Zobrist can slide into one or all three of those spots so it will be easier to find talent to replace those players. Wieters will be back as well and could get a large chunk of time at DH to fill the void of Cruz as the Orioles won’t likely want or be able to catch him as much as the past due to his health.

Now how about the rotation with Price?

Price

Tillman

Gonzalez/Chen

Jimenez

Gausman

I’d say that also looks pretty good for the next couple of seasons and better than what the Orioles have now. With the resurgence of Chris Tillman, Price and Tillman could be a formidable 1 and 2 starter combo to face in the playoffs and match up with any 1-2 combo that is in the American League. Then if Gausman (if kept) continues to improve and/or Jimenez finally puts it together like he did in Cleveland, we could be looking at a major threat to win the American League pennant and possibly even put an end to the 31-year drought of a World Series trophy and parade in Baltimore.

To do all that though, the Orioles are going to need to do what they haven’t done at the deadline since Peter Angelos has owned the team. They’ve got to make the splash – the blockbuster deal.

The Orioles may indeed be trading some of their future, and it would be to a division rival, but with so many question marks for the future already, and with the limited opportunity there is in 2014 and 2015 with this core talent in a weakened division, the time to strike is now.

The Price is right, the time is right as the future is now for the Orioles. Let’s make the deal.

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