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AL East Positional Rankings – Starting Rotations

Kevin Gausman delivers the pitch.
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In this installment of our positional rankings here at Eutaw Street Report, we look at the starting rotations in the AL East. For most teams, the starting rotation has a direct impact on their standing in the division. For example, since 2012, each division winner in the AL East has finished in the top six in ERA in the American League.

Of course, there are exceptions to every rule. The Tampa Bay Rays’ rotation has sported a top-three ERA four times since 2012, ranking as high as first twice, while their lowest ranking was still as high as sixth over that time span. They have made the playoffs just once in those five seasons.

Other Positions:

Catcher
First Base
Second Base
Third Base
Shortstop
Left Field
Centerfield
Right Field
Designated Hitter
Bullpens

The Baltimore Orioles, on the other hand, have ranked ninth or worse four of the last five years, their lone top five finish coming in their division-winning 2014 season. They have made the playoffs three times in those five seasons and have more wins than any other AL squad since 2012.

Still, despite those anomalies, a strong rotation is generally a good barometer for how well your season is going to go. So, let’s hash it out. Your 2017 AL East starting rotations.

 

Starting Rotations

1. Boston Red Sox

2016: 68-42, 4.22 ERA, 9 CG, 5 SHO, 969.1 IP

2017 Projected Rotation: Rick Porcello, Chris Sale, David Price*, Eduardo Rodriguez, Drew Pomeranz, Steven Wright

The Boston Red Sox won the AL East by four games over the Orioles and Blue Jays in 2016, yet they were swept from the playoffs in the first round. So what did they do to fix it? Only make the biggest splash of the offseason, trading away four prospects (including MiLB Player of the Year Yoan Moncada) to the Chicago White Sox in exchange for southpaw Chris Sale.

Arguably the nastiest lefty in the game not named Clayton Kershaw, Sale joins a rotation compiled of 2016 Cy Young Award winner Rick Porcello (22-4, 3.15 ERA) and 2012 Cy Young Award winner David Price (17-9, 3.99 ERA in 2016). And that’s not to mention Steven Wright (13-6, 3.33 ERA), who made his first All-Star team in 2016, though he didn’t pitch in September due to a shoulder injury.

The bottom line is that, which the exception of Eduardo Rodriguez, every pitcher in the Sox starting rotation has a career ERA under 4.00, and though Price will begin the season on the disabled list with elbow discomfort (it’s not considered serious to this point), the rotation should not skip a beat.

This unit is strong and well worthy of its number one ranking on this list, and is a huge reason the Red Sox are one of the early favorites to represent the AL in the World Series.

*Will begin the year on the disabled list

2. Toronto Blue Jays

2016: 66-41, 3.64 ERA, 0 CG, 10 SHO, 995.1 IP

2017 Projected Rotation: Aaron Sanchez, J.A. Happ, Marcus Stroman, Marco Estrada, Francisco Liriano

Despite not tallying one complete game in 2016, the Toronto Blue Jays boasted the best rotation ERA in the American League. In fact, they were the only rotation in the AL to pitch to a sub-4.00 ERA as a unit.

The amazing thing about this rotation is that five starters made at least 29 starts in 2016, a feat accomplished by just one other team in all of baseball–the World Champion Chicago Cubs. However, one of those starters–R.A. Dickey–is now a member of the Atlanta Braves, his replacement being Francisco Liriano and his career 4.05 ERA, though he posted a 3.38 or lower from 2013-2015.

Sanchez posted the best ERA in the AL (3.00) in 2016, and his .882 winning percentage (15-2) was also tops in the league. Meanwhile, J.A. Happ picked up where he left off in Pittsburgh in the second half of 2015, going 20-4 with a 3.18 ERA for Toronto last season, earning every penny of the three-year, $36M deal he signed with the club last offseason.

Still, only one of those five starters–Marcus Stroman–registered 200+ innings in 2016, and he–fresh off his WBC MVP–has yet to fully realize his potential. Of course, this is just nitpicking at this point as it is difficult to find flaws on such a talented staff. Had the Red Sox not acquired Sale this offseason, the top spot would belong to Toronto.

3. Tampa Bay Rays

2016: 48-61, 4.26 ERA, 1 CG, 8 SHO, 920 IP

2017 Projected Rotation: Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Alex Cobb, Blake Snell, Matt Andriese

Usually the strength of the team, the Tampa Bay Rays rotation experienced an extreme dropoff in 2016, failing to place in the top three in starter ERA for the first time since 2009. In fact, their staff ERA of 4.26 was their highest since the 4.54 ERA they posted in that same 2009 season.

Of course, there were a few factors that led to the lackluster performance last season. For one, Cobb made just five starts after missing all of 2015 to Tommy John Surgery. A full season from a fully healthy Cobb should pay dividends for the Rays.

Archer had the worst season of his professional career, posting a 4.02 ERA with a league-leading 19 losses after three consecutive seasons at 3.33 or lower. Without the pressure of having to carry the team this season, Archer should rebound nicely and return to the form that made him my pick for the Cy Young award prior to last season.

Blake Snell, one of baseball’s top prospects last season, made his debut last summer and pitched to a 3.54 ERA in 19 starts covering 89 IP, all of this despite a 1.618 WHIP and 5.2 BB/9 IP. Those numbers are a little high for the Rays liking, but should come down as he gains more experience.

All told, this rotation could be the saving grace for the Rays in 2017. But as we’ve seen before, a good rotation does not necessarily mean success for Tampa Bay.

4. New York Yankees

2016: 48-59, 4.44, 0 CG, 10 SHO, 916 IP

2017 Projected Rotation: Masahiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia, Michael Pineda, Luis Severino, TBD

As much love as the Yankees are getting this spring for their young and talented, if not raw, lineup, it’s hard to imagine them doing very much in the way of making a run for the division given the question marks in their rotation.

Tanaka is a bona fide ace, and Sabathia is coming off a season that saw him post a sub-4.00 ERA for the first time since 2012 after posting seven straight such seasons prior. The rest of the rotation leaves much to be desired.

Pineda has yet to rediscover the form that made him an All-Star as a rookie in 2011, though every season analysts seem to proclaim he is about to turn the corner. And then there is Severino, who burst onto the scene in 2015 with a 2.89 ERA in 11 starts, only to see his numbers balloon by nearly three runs/game in 2016. Still, Severino is talented and should improve in 2017.

For the Yankees, who have yet to name a fifth starter, the talent in the rotation doesn’t quite match the young talent in the lineup, which should mean missing the playoffs for the fourth time in five years.

5. Baltimore Orioles

2016: 57-58, 4.72 ERA, 1 CG, 9 SHO, 886 IP

2017 Projected Rotation: Kevin Gausman, Dylan Bundy, Ubaldo Jimenez, Wade Miley, Chris Tillman*

For the Baltimore Orioles, the spring got off to a bad start as Tillman, the staff ace, showed up with shoulder discomfort that has seemingly ailed him since last August. With Tillman having yet to throw a competitive pitch in 2017, it will be up to Gausman and Bundy to pick up the slack, and the Orioles are simply hoping Jimenez and Miley don’t turn into complete dumpster fires in 2017.

For Gausman, making his first Opening Day start in 2017, last year was a benchmark performance for the former LSU product. He made 30 starts while throwing 179.2 IP, registering a 3.61 ERA in the process, best on the team. The Orioles fully expect his maturation process to continue as he pitched to a 3.10 ERA in 15 second half starts, including a 2.45 ERA in August.

Bundy made his first major league start on July 17, and went 5-3 with a 3.56 ERA in 43 IP in his first 8 starts, showing the flashes of brilliance that made him the fourth overall pick in the 2011 amateur draft.

But Bundy, who pitched the most professional innings of his career in 2016, succumbed to the workload and finished the season by going 3-2 with a 5.97 ERA over his final six starts. Still, Bundy’s 10 wins ranked second on the team, and his 4.02 ERA ranked third among starters.

For Orioles fans, the day they’ve dreamed of where Gausman and Bundy head up the top of the rotation is finally here, but with Tillman beginning the year on the DL and the team having yet to name his replacement, this rotation simply doesn’t warrant being ranked any higher in the division. Luckily for the Birds, the bullpen may be the best in the business, which has been enough to hide rotation’s flaws in four of the last five seasons.

*Will begin the year on the disabled list

That does it for the starting rotations of the AL East. As always, this is just one man’s opinion and is up for respectful debate. Up next, I rank the managers in the AL East. Also, stay tuned for my AL East preview and MLB predictions, which should be up just in time for Opening Day.

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