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2017 National League Preview

Jake Arrieta of the Cubs screams and gets pumped up.
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Last season, my National League Predictions were way off. I correctly predicted the NL East standings and the Rookie of the Year, and that’s about it. But, if PECOTA, FanGraphs, and meteorologists can be wrong every year and get paid for it, then I think I’m okay. This year, for the fifth year in a row I take another crack at it. So here you go, my National League and World Series predictions.

[Related: 2017 American League & World Series Predictions]

National League

East

Washington Nationals (94-68) – Bryce Harper tied for the Spring Training lead in home runs and looks to have put his shoulder issues behind him. The rotation, led by two-time Cy Young award winner Max Scherzer, is absolutely filthy, and the lineup is loaded. When Matt Wieters and Ryan Zimmerman are your two worst hitters, you’re in for a fun season.

New York Mets (87-75) – Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, a healthy Matt Harvey, and Zack Wheeler are what make this team a legitimate contender. And when Steven Matz comes off the DL, they’ll get that much better. Still, the Mets usually find a way to let their fans down, and 2017 will be no different.

Atlanta Braves (80-82) – The Braves are going to be a really, really fun team in 2017. There are no easy outs in the lineup, and the rotation has dependable veterans to bridge the gap while they wait for any of their four starting pitchers on the MLB.com top 100 Prospects list to mature. Not to mention, Dansby Swanson and Ozzie Albers are two of the top prospects in the game and should get plenty of playing time at the Major League level. The Braves, who went 37-35 (.514) in the second half last year, won’t make the playoffs, but they’ll treat their fans to one hell of a time all season long.

Miami Marlins (77-85) – Many expect the Marlins to rally around each other, using the death of Jose Fernandez as motivation all season long. That may be all well and good, but the fact remains that they don’t have a legitimate replacement for Fernandez in their rotation. And while the lineup has some solid players, Giancarlo Stanton has simply not been the same player since getting drilled in the face in 2014, and he can’t seem to stay healthy. Sorry Marlins fans, this season will not be a good one.

Philadelphia Phillies (74-88) – The Phillies have three good, young pitchers in Jerad Eickhoff, Aaron Nola, and Vince Velazquez. Maikel Franco and Odubel Herrera are stars in the making. Still, there will be growing pains in the City of Brotherly Love. The Phils are close, but they’re not there yet.

 

Central

Chicago Cubs (97-65) – They ended the longest championship drought in professional sports in 2016, winning their first World Series title since 1908 (108 years). And though they lost Dexter Fowler to the Cardinals in the offseason, Kyle Schwarber is back and healthy, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo are still hitting in the middle of the order, and that starting rotation is still stellar. This is the best team in baseball, ladies and gentleman.

St. Louis Cardinals (93-69) – As stated earlier, Dexter Fowler signed with the Cardinals to bring an added element to their lineup, and though Alex Reyes will miss the season after undergoing Tommy John Surgery, Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha, and Mike Leake all had excellent springs and are primed for big years. If Adam Wainwright can return to form, this rotation will be special. Not to mention the winning pedigree that has grown in St. Louis. They’re like the Yankees of the National League.

Pittsburgh Pirates (86-76) – The Pirates have a young and talented starting rotation, highlighted by Jameson Taillon, Gerrit Cole, and Tyler Glasnow. The lineup should be serviceable, and if Andrew McCutchen can return to his pre-2016 form, they’re going to play some good baseball in Pittsburgh. Just not good enough to make it to October.

Cincinnati Reds (74-88) – Adam Duvall came out of nowhere to hit 33 HR with 103 RBI. Zack Cozart is oozing with potential. Billy Hamilton is fast. Joey Votto is STILL one of the best hitters on the planet. But that’s about it for the Reds. It’s going to be another long season in Cincinatti.

Milwaukee Brewers (72-90) – Junior Guerra had a nice rookie season in the rotation for Milwaukee in 2016, albeit at the age of 31, and Zach Davies continuously reminded Orioles fans why they hated the Gerardo Parra trade so much two seasons ago. But when your next best pitcher is the oft-injured Matt Garza–who will start the season on the DL–and your starting first basemen is Eric Thames, you’re in for some trouble. The Brewers can’t even pretend to be good in 2017, much like in 2016. Milwaukee fans must be getting tired of this broken record. At least there’s plenty of beer to go around out there.

 

West

San Francisco Giants (91-71) – The Giants had the best record in baseball at 57-33 in the first half of 2016. In the second half, they were 30-42, thanks in large part to a bullpen that couldn’t hold a lead. Mark Melancon has been brought in to fortify that bullpen, and with a starting rotation that features Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, and Matt Moore, the Giants should find themselves in the playoffs for the second consecutive season.

**Side note: Matt Cain is not good anymore, and he hasn’t been in five years. Can everybody stop pretending that isn’t the case?

Los Angeles Dodgers (90-72) – Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in the world. Corey Seager is primed for an MVP season after winning the NL Rookie of the Year award in 2016. Kenta Maeda is looking to build upon a strong rookie campaign that saw him win 16 games and pitch to a 3.48 ERA. The Dodgers have a lot of talent and should give the Giants everything they can handle in the NL West.

Colorado Rockies (85-77) – Everybody in the lineup can hit, though Ian Desmond fractured his hand and will start the year on the DL, which should be a hit to the lineup. Still, only the Red Sox scored more runs than Colorado last season. What the Rockies are hoping is that everybody in the rotation can pitch. They have two young studs making their MLB debuts in the rotation in Antonio Senzatela and Kyle Freeland. It’s always the same thing in Colorado. They can hit with the best of ’em. If they can pitch, they can win.

Arizona Diamondbacks (79-83) – The return of A.J. Pollock is huge for this team, and Zack Greinke is out to prove that his 2016 season was just a blip on the radar. Paul Goldschmidt might be the best first baseman in the National League, and he would surely be a bigger star if he didn’t play in Arizona. Having said that, the D-Backs need Taiwan Walker, acquired in the offseason in exchange for Jean Segura, to realize his potential, and for Shelby Miller to regain his form from the 2013-15 seasons if they want to be relevant in 2017.

San Diego Padres (68-94) – In the lineup, it’s Wil Myers, Yangervis Solarte, and Hunter Renfroe, and that’s about it. In the rotation it’s Clayton Richards and a bunch of also-ran’s. Not much to say here, the Padres may be the worst team in the National League.

Awards

NL MVP

  1. Bryce Harper Washington Nationals
  2. Corey Seager Los Angeles Dodgers
  3. Kris Bryant Chicago Cubs

Dark horse Candidate: Yoenis Cespedes New York Mets

NL Cy Young

  1. Clayton Kershaw Los Angeles Dodgers
  2. Max Scherzer Washington Nationals
  3. Kyle Hendricks Chicago Cubs

Dark horse: Madison BumgarnerSan Francisco Giants

NL Rookie of the Year

  1. Dansby Swanson Atlanta Braves
  2. Tyler Glasnow Pittsburgh Pirates
  3. Josh Bell Pittsburgh Pirates

Dark horse: Ozzie Albies Atlanta Braves

NL Comeback Player of the Year

  1. Kyle Schwarber Chicago Cubs
  2. Bryce Harper – Washington Nationals
  3. Andrew McCutchen Pittsburgh Pirates

Dark horse: A.J. Pollock Arizona Diamondbacks

Playoffs

Wild Card- Dodgers d. Cardinals

NLDS- Cubs d. Dodgers, Giants d. Nationals

NLCS- Cubs d. Giants

My World Series picks will be unveiled in the American League portion to follow.

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