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Week 4 O’bservations: The Good, Bad, & Ugly

orioles player adam jones falling on baseball field
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The Orioles started out week four by winning the first three games in Oakland. Since then, they have lost three of four, blowing a late lead in Oakland and not showing up for games one and three against Seattle.

Instead of telling you why this has happened, this week we’re going to look at the good, the bad, and the ugly of the season to date.

The Good

The Orioles offense has been much better than last year’s to this point. Last season, the Orioles as a team ranked 20th in average, 15th in runs, eighth in extra-base hits (XBH), 23rd in on-base percentage (OBP), and second in home runs.

This season, they’re rank sixth in average, fourth in runs, sixth in XBH, 11th in OBP, and eighth in home runs. They have improved significantly in just about every category except for home runs, and that number should go up with more games at home in the summer heat and humidity.

A large part of the success of the offense is due to the production at the top of the order. The O’s one through five hitters are collectively batting .317 with 21 HR, 88 RBI, 99 runs scored, and 51 walks. Nate McLouth and Manny Machado are both hitting over .400 during the last 10 games. Chris Davis (second-17), Manny Machado (fourth-16) and Adam Jones (ninth-15) are all in the top 10 in the league in XBH. For Davis and Jones, they also rank in the top 12 in average and RBI.

The bullpen has been outstanding, recording six wins, 11 saves, and an opponent’s-batting average against of just .213, all while pitching to an impressive era of 2.68. They are in the top five in all of baseball in each of those categories.

The Bad

Adam Jones, only credited with two errors this season, has played about as bad a centerfield as anyone is ever going to see. I can count four dropped fly balls that should have been caught. His poor defense has been a contributing factor in three losses and is the main reason for two of those losses. He dropped two more fly balls last night that were credited as hits but just as easily could have been errors, both contributing to an extended inning that led to runs.

Only one O’s starting pitcher has gone more than seven innings in a start this season, and that happened this past week when Wei-Yin Chen tossed eight innings of shutout ball against the A’s. That’s it – one start out of 28. That is, simply put, unacceptable. The bullpen, while good, will be taxed by July at that rate.

Jake Arrieta has already been demoted because he can’t stop walking guys and when he gets men on base, he can’t pitch with any consistency. His stuff is way too good to struggle so mightily. In his place, Josh Stinson and Zach Britton have been ineffective and were both demoted after their lone starts, failing an audition to be a main-stay in the rotation.

The Ugly

Over the last four games, Orioles starters have combined to pitch 20 1/3 innings to the tune of a 7.53 ERA. That just isn’t going to cut it. Chen, who was masterful in his performance against Oakland, was victimized by some poor defense in Seattle, but good pitchers find ways to keep teams off the board in tough situations. Last night, Chen was not good.

Offensively, the Birds are getting little-to-nothing from the bottom of their lineup. The six-through-nine hitters are batting a combined .190 with 12 HR, 44 RBI, 41 R, and 35 walks. Simply put, they are not getting the job done. Imagine how good this team could be if the bottom of the order could figure out how to turn the lineup over?

What does it all mean?

It means the Orioles need to play better baseball. Adam Jones needs to figure it out in centerfield. The pitchers need to dig into the well and find out how to stop walking hitters and get deeper into games. Guys like Nolan Reimold, JJ Hardy and Matt Wieters need to start swinging the bats like they’re capable of, because right now they are killing rallies and hanging their teammates out to dry. The Birds are 16-12, good enough for third place in the AL East. After a 93-win season, they’re where they should be, but we easily forget that this franchise got off to a good start many times during their 14-year run of losing baseball only to fall flat on their face. One year and one playoff appearance does not make a dynasty. If the O’s can’t solve these problems, we may only get one year.

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