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O’verview – two months into the season, Birds look strong

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I was planning on writing about the starting pitching the other day, and discussing how Jason Hammel and Miguel Gonzalez look to be coming back to their 2012 form. I am glad I held off because I was also going to say it was almost time to cut Freddy Garcia loose. Amazing what happens with another time through the pitching order, but here we are, on the Orioles’ first off day after a stretch of 17 games in 17 days where they went 9-8. They sit 32-25 and only 2.5 games out of first. This time last year, they were 30-23. After the first two months of the season plus two games, here are some thoughts on our beloved O’s.

Starting Pitching:

This will ultimately be what holds the Orioles back from making a return trip to October – or, if they are fortunate enough to get there, to make a deep run. Their most consistent pitcher from 2012, Wei-Yin Chen, doesn’t appear close to returning from an oblique injury. I thought Hammel corrected his mechanics and regained his fastball command after struggling through the first two months, but he was back to not locating his pitches on Saturday afternoon against the Detroit Tigers before being ejected. Chris Tillman has pitched well, but he still throws too many pitches during his starts. Miguel Gonzalez put together back-to-back solid starts after returning from a blister injury that landed him on the DL, but he allowed five earned runs against the Tigers in his last start and now has an ERA approaching the mid 4’s.

I don’t know how he is doing it, but the best pitcher right now has been Freddy Garcia. Even though he looks like he is throwing slow-pitch softball, and is sweating from pitch one, he consistently keeps the Orioles in the game. His eight-shutout innings against the Washington Nationals was the definition of pitching. This may not last, but it looks like Dan Duquette has found another player after throwing something against the wall and seeing what sticks.

Speaking of Duquette, he was a guest on SiriusXM MLB Network Radio late last week and he had an interesting comment when asked if the Orioles were going to be in the market for pitching. Duquette said, “Usually the teams that are in the hunt add to their pitching along the way …and we plan to be in the hunt. I’m sure if we are in the hunt, we will be in the market for pitching.”

He also said that he is hoping one of the young pitchers in the minors will step up, but we have seen that script before. The one name to keep an eye on would be Chicago Cubs pitcher Matt Garza. He has been injured for most of the season, but now that he is back, I am sure the Cubs are hoping he pitches well and stays healthy so he can be flipped for some prospects later in the summer.

I saved Kevin Gausman for last because he is truly the wild card in all of this. He is a rookie and it is way too hard to rely on a rookie, but what we have seen from him in his first three starts – Sunday against the Tigers in particular – is a guy who will only get better and is as good as advertised. His awareness of what is going on is especially impressive. He realized very quickly that he has to pitch down in the strike zone to be successful and marveled at Garcia being able to do that with success even though he doesn’t have the best stuff. It is one thing to realize that. It is another to execute it, and yesterday he did just that. He also pitched for the first time. I don’t know if it was be design, but he relied too much on his plus-plus fastball in his first two starts and hitters at the major league level will take advantage of that. Against the Tigers, he mixed in his changeup and slider more often, and the fastball became a better pitch as a result.

The Offense:

There really isn’t much to say about the offensive production. I have said many times that this offense is World Series-caliber. It will be about the pitching, as mentioned before. Much was made about not addressing the middle of the order in the offseason. I wonder where those people are now as they watched Chris Davis hit his 20th homerun on Sunday? Davis would be on his way to his first MVP award if it wasn’t for a guy name Miguel Cabrera, but at least we should be able to watch him in the Home Run Derby and in the All-Star Game.

With the play of Davis, and the great start by Manny Machado, it is amazing to even think that Adam Jones is getting lost in the shuffle, but I think he is. The crazy part is, he is on pace to have a career season.

Nick Markakis continues to be Mr. Steady and we are now seeing the type of hitter he can be when he doesn’t have to carry an offense. He seems much more comfortable in that role. The one player I thought would benefit the most with the improved offense would be Matt Wieters. However, other than being on pace for the most RBIs in his career, Wieters still will have a low average and finish between 20-25 homeruns. Maybe my expectations for him were too high, but I would be fine with him hitting around .275. I just don’t think that will happen.

The best part of the offense has been their ability to cut down on strikeouts from 2012 and improve their stolen bases from last season. Last year, they finished 6th in all of baseball with over 1,300 strikeouts. Their inability to put the ball in play consistently was their downfall against the Yankees in the playoffs and it was the sole reason why Mark Reynolds and Robert Andino are no longer on the team. This season, however, they are 28th in baseball. They have dropped over 20 spots with almost the same lineup. As for stolen bases, they finished dead last in baseball last season, but they are in the top five this year. Nate McLouth can be credited for this improvement, and for a team that relies on the homeruns like the Orioles do, it is impressive that they have as many steals as they do and they are as successful as they are when they do run.

Final Thoughts:

This is shaping up to be another fun summer in Baltimore. The two wins over the Tigers this weekend is what this team has been about since Buck Showalter arrived. They hang around and find a way to win in the end. They have flaws, but all teams do. The lineup and the strong bullpen will allow them to win on most nights, but the name of the game is starting pitching. Duquette and Showalter probably don’t want to give up prospects for a rental, but they aren’t going to allow the starting staff to bring the team down either. I think they make a move, hope Gausman continues to get better, and roll the dice that one or two other guys get hot. If that happens, who knows how this season could end?

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