I’ve talked a lot about OBP and the Orioles’ lineup this past offseason, but starting pitching was as much of an Achilles heel in 2013, so it should be no surprise that I also want the Orioles to sign Ervin Santana. However, there have been many fans that don’t see the need, nor think he’d be a fit with the Orioles, especially at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
Let’s address some of the common concerns I’ve read about:
1. He has a career ERA of 6.38 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
The statistics don’t lie, but you also have to realize that Santana’s only played seven games in OPACY. It’s not exactly a large sample size, so one or two bad games could skew that stat pretty significantly. Here’s his game log:
4/14/06 – 7 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 3 HR
7/27/08 – 5 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, 0 HR
8/17/09 – 6 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 HR
8/4/10 – 3.2 IP, 12 H, 9 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 1 HR
7/22/11 – 7.2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1BB, 1 K, 0 HR
9/17/11 – 7 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, 2 HR
5/7/13 – 6 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 0 HR
The game on August 4th in 2010 really stands out (in a bad way), but he has three quality starts (two in his last three appearances at OPACY) and pitched at least six innings in five out of seven starts, including his only appearance at OPACY last season. That tells me may he may get hit hard a few times, but he’s going to gut it out when he doesn’t have his best stuff and that will only help the Orioles’ bullpen in the long run. Saving the bullpen over the long run could also be more important than any particular game.
2. He gives up a lot of home runs.
Again, this is true, but Santana also pitches a lot of innings as well, giving him the chance to give up more home runs. To illustrate this, we’ll look at the top 10 pitchers in MLB that pitched at least 200 innings in 2013 in terms of home runs given up and then runs allowed:
Here are the top 10 pitchers who threw 200+ innings and allowed the most HRs in 2013:
- AJ Griffin (36)
- R.A. Dickey (35)
- Chris Tillman (33)
- Bronson Arroyo (32)
- Jeremy Guthrie (30)
- CC Sabathia (28)
- Ervin Santana (26)
- Yu Darvish (25)
- Jeff Samardzija (25)
- Hisashi Iwakuma (25)
Now here are the top 10 pitchers who threw 200+ innings and allowed the most runs:
- CC Sabathia (122)
- R.A. Dickey (113)
- Jeff Samardzija (109)
- Mark Buehrle (100)
- Jeremy Guthrie (99)
- Eric Stults (97)
- Cole Hamels (94)
- Justin Verlander (94)
- Jon Lester (94)
- C.J. Wilson (93)
Notice Santana is on the first list but not the second. He ranked 18th out of those 36 pitchers that pitched 200+ innings with 85 runs allowed. Chris Tillman is also on that first list, but not the second and ranked 17th with 87 runs allowed. Nineteen of Santana’s 26 home runs allowed were solo home runs, while 23 of Tillman’s 33 home runs allowed were solo shots.
So the home runs are clearly not as big of an issue as people make them out to be for pitchers that pitch 200 innings or more and have good control like Santana does.
3. He’s pitching with a partially torn UCL.
This may or may not have been debunked in an article by Ken Rosenthal at the beginning of the offseason. Here’s what it said:
“The Los Angeles Times reported in March 2009 that Santana had a sprained UCL. The book quotes Andrews as saying, ‘He doesn’t need any further treatment for his right elbow partial UCL tear, as on (the) MRI today it appears that it has completely healed.’”
Santana has also pitched 200 innings or more in three out of the four seasons since having that sprained or torn UCL, including last season, so it doesn’t seem to be an issue. For a one year deal, the Orioles can certainly take the risk.
4. He’ll block a younger arm (Kevin Gausman, Dylan Bundy) from the rotation.
First of all neither Gausman nor Bundy have proven yet they can start in MLB effectively, so neither can be counted on for the 200 innings or 20 or more quality starts the Orioles need from another starting pitcher in the rotation in 2014. You could likely say the same for 2015. Sure, they COULD do it, but you can’t count on them to right now. Santana is a good bet to achieve both those numbers in 2014.
Secondly, I’m not sure why Bundy or Gausman actually have to be part of the future rotation when either could be used as a trade chip to augment the team elsewhere. Remember, years ago with the Red Sox, Duquette used his younger pitchers as trade bait to land Pedro Martinez. The Orioles’ core is getting expensive and aging, and three pieces – Matt Wieters, Chris Davis and J.J. Hardy – are all set to leave the team in the next two offseasons. There’s not enough MLB-ready (or close) talent in the O’s minor league system to even come close to replacing their contributions in the next few seasons.
Free agency is getting worse and more expensive, so that leaves trades as the only option to extend the Orioles’ run while possibly losing talent to free agency and maintaining their core roster. Bundy and Gausman are two big chips the Orioles could play to get a future cornerstone piece (like, say, a Giancarlo Stanton) to replace the offense they’re set to lose. With Santana in the rotation, even for one year, that allows the Orioles to trade one of Bundy or Gausman to add that key piece to the lineup for the future, without hurting the major league roster in 2014. The Orioles will still have plenty of pitching in the minors to add to the team in the next few seasons.
5. He’s only a minor upgrade.
This one seems to be the most common, but Santana’s track record of quality starts and innings pitched is unmatched by anybody currently in the Orioles rotation. Only Tillman and Ubaldo Jimenez have pitched over 200 innings and had 20 or more quality starts, and only Jimenez has done so more than once, with his last time coming in 2010.
Those quality innings help to save the bullpen and keep it fresh and that’s important because seven out of the 10 teams that went to the playoffs in 2013 were also in the top 15 teams that had the fewest innings pitched from their bullpen. Out of those teams however, only Cincinnati and Detroit had three pitchers in their rotation all reach the 200 inning threshold. With Santana, the Orioles could have three pitchers of their own reach that mark, with the possibility of four as Chen came pretty close in 2012. That would give them a great shot at the playoffs and the chance to go much deeper in October.
The concerns around Ervin Santana are understandable, but when you look at the numbers and what the Orioles have to gain by signing him, there’s just too much to possibly gain to not take the risk on a one-year deal. He may give up a lot of home runs, but he’s got the control to limit the damage and even though he may or may not be pitching with a torn ligament in his elbow, he’s going to give you six innings or more every night, something you can’t really say about the rest of their rotation. There’s a lot of value there and I hope the Orioles realize it.
He may be a “luxury” to some, but signing Ervin Santana could be the key to the success of the Orioles in 2014 and beyond.
